Value
7.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
STDN · Why this verdict
Why Standard Nuclear (STDN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Standard Nuclear is an early-stage specialty chemicals name with sharply rising but tiny revenue and 25.4% upside to the analyst target, held back by weak momentum, thin quality data and a large earnings miss.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $15.01 is 25.4% above the $11.97 price, giving a reward-to-risk of 1.78 against 14.2% downside, with analyst upside of 44% before the haircut. Analyst target | Price should move toward $15.01 as revenue ramps. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries less weight, and the position is rated AVOID. | ||
Momentum is 2.4/10 with falling on-balance volume (distribution), a weak MACD and price below key moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 and on-balance volume should turn up. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSelling pressure may persist into the earnings report on 2026-11-12, and implied volatility of 113% shows high uncertainty. | ||
Quarterly revenue jumped to $4.74M in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 from $0.59M the prior quarter and $0.55M a year earlier, making the company an industry growth leader. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $5.5M next-quarter estimate and hold above $4M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue data mixes provisional and filed sources and the base is tiny, so one large contract can distort the trend. | ||
The latest report missed by a wide margin (-$0.12 versus -$0.02 expected), and the operating margin scores 0 with quality at 3.7, below the 4.0 floor. Last 4 quarters | The quarterly loss per share should narrow to -$0.05 or better. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only one reported quarter on record, the miss may reflect public-listing costs rather than the underlying economics. | ||
Basic Materials is out of favor while the value score is 9.0, and institutions are accumulating with no net insider activity. Edge rationale | Institutional holdings should keep rising as the sector rotates back into favor. | →Stable |
| CounterThe value score rests mainly on the analyst target because earnings-based valuation data is missing (confidence 0.33). | ||
The analyst target of $15.01 is 25.4% above the $11.97 price, giving a reward-to-risk of 1.78 against 14.2% downside, with analyst upside of 44% before the haircut.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward $15.01 as revenue ramps.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target carries less weight, and the position is rated AVOID.
Momentum is 2.4/10 with falling on-balance volume (distribution), a weak MACD and price below key moving averages.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 and on-balance volume should turn up.
CounterSelling pressure may persist into the earnings report on 2026-11-12, and implied volatility of 113% shows high uncertainty.
Quarterly revenue jumped to $4.74M in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 from $0.59M the prior quarter and $0.55M a year earlier, making the company an industry growth leader.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $5.5M next-quarter estimate and hold above $4M.
CounterRevenue data mixes provisional and filed sources and the base is tiny, so one large contract can distort the trend.
The latest report missed by a wide margin (-$0.12 versus -$0.02 expected), and the operating margin scores 0 with quality at 3.7, below the 4.0 floor.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The quarterly loss per share should narrow to -$0.05 or better.
CounterWith only one reported quarter on record, the miss may reflect public-listing costs rather than the underlying economics.
Basic Materials is out of favor while the value score is 9.0, and institutions are accumulating with no net insider activity.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Institutional holdings should keep rising as the sector rotates back into favor.
CounterThe value score rests mainly on the analyst target because earnings-based valuation data is missing (confidence 0.33).
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 57%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.60
- ▸High IV: 110%
- ▸Above max pain $8
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.27
Upside
+18.4%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.5
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 1.27.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Ramp From Small Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $3M in any quarter.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target is cut below $12 from the current $15.01.
- P3Weak Momentum Distribution
Trip ifMomentum stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Earnings Miss And Losses
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share widens beyond -$0.20.
- P5Sector Rotation Value
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $11.13 stop level.