Value
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
STAA · Why this verdict
Why STAAR Surgical (STAA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
STAAR Surgical combines elite growth economics and a strong earnings beat streak with a failed momentum gate and heavy short interest, leaving the stock's near-term risk/reward unfavorable despite structural strength.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 120% year-over-year, and quality notes flag a Rule of 40 score of 114 — an elite combined growth-and-margin result. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next four quarters, keeping the Rule of 40 score elite. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the company remains cash-burning at -6% of revenue, so the hyper-growth may not be fully translating into cash generation. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with catalyst notes flagging a strong beat record and an average surprise near 79%. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case flags that the analyst price target has already been reached, capping incremental upside even if the beat streak continues. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed at 2.6, well below the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.86, reflecting unfavorable near-term risk/reward. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score should recover above 4.5 as the negative price action stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day moving average per momentum notes, suggesting the broader uptrend is still structurally intact. | ||
Short interest is elevated at 21%, with risk notes describing this level as justified, indicating the market is actively positioned against the stock. Key risks | Short interest should decline below 15% as bearish positioning unwinds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest at justified levels can also set up a short squeeze if earnings continue to beat, which would work in the bulls' favor. | ||
Revenue grew 120% year-over-year, and quality notes flag a Rule of 40 score of 114 — an elite combined growth-and-margin result.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next four quarters, keeping the Rule of 40 score elite.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and the company remains cash-burning at -6% of revenue, so the hyper-growth may not be fully translating into cash generation.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with catalyst notes flagging a strong beat record and an average surprise near 79%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterThe bear case flags that the analyst price target has already been reached, capping incremental upside even if the beat streak continues.
The engine's momentum gate failed at 2.6, well below the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.86, reflecting unfavorable near-term risk/reward.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above 4.5 as the negative price action stabilizes.
CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day moving average per momentum notes, suggesting the broader uptrend is still structurally intact.
Short interest is elevated at 21%, with risk notes describing this level as justified, indicating the market is actively positioned against the stock.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 15% as bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterHigh short interest at justified levels can also set up a short squeeze if earnings continue to beat, which would work in the bulls' favor.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 114 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 120% YoY
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.3 |
| days to cover | 1.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 22%
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.59
Upside
+8.0%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 1.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Growth Rule Of 40
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY from the current 120% pace.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat streak drops below 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Failed Momentum Gate
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 25% of float, up from the current 21%.