Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.69
- ▸Attractively valued
SSNC · Why this verdict
Why SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SS&C Technologies trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x against analyst targets implying 22% upside and converts 158% of net income into free cash flow, but a confirmed long-term downtrend and inconsistent earnings record over the past 4 quarters create meaningful near-term timing risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 67% of revenue comes from United States operations, exposing the company to any domestic slowdown in financial services technology spending that could compress growth rates. Bear case | International revenue grows faster than domestic revenue, reducing the United States share below 62% within 24 months as the company diversifies its geographic base. | →Stable |
| CounterUS financial services is a large and relatively resilient end market; geographic concentration in the US may be a competitive advantage rather than a risk if domestic fintech spending remains robust. | ||
SS&C converts approximately 158% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that accounting earnings substantially understate the actual cash generation power of the business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% over the next 12 months, providing the financial flexibility for debt reduction or capital returns. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect aggressive depreciation or working capital timing benefits that reverse; elevated debt (debt-to-equity 1.1) limits how much of that cash flow is available to equity holders. | ||
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $82.46 implies more than 22% upside from the current price of $67.42, supported by a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x that reflects an earnings-recovery discount. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches $80 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the valuation gap to analyst targets narrows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets were set above current prices during a period when the stock was in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to reverse momentum, price may remain below targets for an extended period. | ||
SS&C is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 3.3% per month, confirming a sustained downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, confirming trend reversal. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeath cross patterns in software stocks can persist for 9 to 18 months when accompanied by earnings uncertainty, and below-average institutional volume accumulation confirms ongoing distribution. | ||
Approximately 67% of revenue comes from United States operations, exposing the company to any domestic slowdown in financial services technology spending that could compress growth rates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows faster than domestic revenue, reducing the United States share below 62% within 24 months as the company diversifies its geographic base.
CounterUS financial services is a large and relatively resilient end market; geographic concentration in the US may be a competitive advantage rather than a risk if domestic fintech spending remains robust.
SS&C converts approximately 158% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that accounting earnings substantially understate the actual cash generation power of the business.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% over the next 12 months, providing the financial flexibility for debt reduction or capital returns.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect aggressive depreciation or working capital timing benefits that reverse; elevated debt (debt-to-equity 1.1) limits how much of that cash flow is available to equity holders.
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $82.46 implies more than 22% upside from the current price of $67.42, supported by a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x that reflects an earnings-recovery discount.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches $80 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the valuation gap to analyst targets narrows.
CounterAnalyst targets were set above current prices during a period when the stock was in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to reverse momentum, price may remain below targets for an extended period.
SS&C is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 3.3% per month, confirming a sustained downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, confirming trend reversal.
CounterDeath cross patterns in software stocks can persist for 9 to 18 months when accompanied by earnings uncertainty, and below-average institutional volume accumulation confirms ongoing distribution.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 149% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 8.9 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 8.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $583,592 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (7.9%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.58
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Peer rank at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income over any 12-month period, declining more than 78 percentage points from the current 158% level.
- P2Analyst Upside Recovery Case
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down below $72, less than 7% above current price, removing the valuation recovery thesis.
- P3Momentum Downtrend BarrierTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $60, more than 11% below the current $67.42, without a corresponding recovery above the 200-day moving average within 60 days.
- P4Geographic Concentration Us
Trip ifRevenue growth from United States operations exceeds international growth by more than 10 percentage points for 2 consecutive reported quarters.