Value
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
SNDA · Why this verdict
Why Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sonida Senior Living posts standout revenue growth and strong overbought momentum, but a 4-quarter earnings miss streak, weak fundamental quality, and an already-reached price target argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 38% year-over-year, and the peer comparison notes flag the company as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory holds. | →Stable |
| CounterSenior living occupancy-driven growth can decelerate quickly with demographic or reimbursement policy shifts. | ||
The company has missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -29.54%. Earnings | The company should return to at least an in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak reflects temporary noise. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive misses is a strong signal of a structural forecasting or execution problem rather than a one-off issue. | ||
RSI sits at an extreme 89, with price above the 200-day moving average and rising volume accumulation, indicating a strongly overbought condition. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range without a sharp price breakdown if the uptrend is healthy. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI reading this extreme combined with a target already reached significantly raises reversal risk. | ||
The business shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, reflecting below-average fundamental quality. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should improve within 12 months if fundamentals are strengthening. | →Stable |
| CounterA senior living operator can carry a low Piotroski score while still generating stable occupancy-based cash flows. | ||
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -1.13x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or price pulls back to a better entry. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth momentum could justify analysts raising targets, restoring positive asymmetry. | ||
Revenue grew 38% year-over-year, and the peer comparison notes flag the company as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory holds.
CounterSenior living occupancy-driven growth can decelerate quickly with demographic or reimbursement policy shifts.
The company has missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -29.54%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak reflects temporary noise.
CounterFour consecutive misses is a strong signal of a structural forecasting or execution problem rather than a one-off issue.
RSI sits at an extreme 89, with price above the 200-day moving average and rising volume accumulation, indicating a strongly overbought condition.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range without a sharp price breakdown if the uptrend is healthy.
CounterAn RSI reading this extreme combined with a target already reached significantly raises reversal risk.
The business shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, reflecting below-average fundamental quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should improve within 12 months if fundamentals are strengthening.
CounterA senior living operator can carry a low Piotroski score while still generating stable occupancy-based cash flows.
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -1.13x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
Tripped→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or price pulls back to a better entry.
CounterStrong revenue growth momentum could justify analysts raising targets, restoring positive asymmetry.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.8 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $93,654 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.09
Upside
-15.9%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -2.09.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 5.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.2, Catalyst at 2.5, and Peer rank at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company's EPS exceeds estimates for at least 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current 4-quarter miss streak.
- P3Overbought Technical Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 50, ending the current overbought reading.
- P4Weak Fundamental Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 4 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Target Reached Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.