Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.37
SLB · Why this verdict
Why SLB (SLB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SLB has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats and maintains strong technical support well above its 200-day moving average, but slowing revenue growth, negative price momentum, and thin 4.5% upside headroom leave limited near-term return potential.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SLB has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.9%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and management's ability to reliably meet or exceed expectations in a capital-intensive services environment. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters, maintaining an average surprise of at least 2% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAverage surprises of only 2.9% suggest very tight guidance management rather than genuine outperformance, and any oil services demand slowdown could quickly break the streak. | ||
The dividend coverage ratio of 220% suggests the dividend is well-covered by earnings, providing a yield-based floor for income-oriented investors even if price appreciation is limited at current levels. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage remains above 150% and the absolute dividend payment is maintained or increased over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA coverage ratio of 220% against a backdrop of flat earnings growth and weak revenue may narrow quickly if a single quarter misses; oil services dividends historically have been cut in down-cycles. | ||
SLB scores 9.6 on support and resistance technicals and 8.5 overall on the technical dimension, with price sitting on a well-established support zone, suggesting the market structure favors a near-term bounce if demand fundamentals stabilize. Technical breakdown | Price holds above the $51.91 support level and advances toward the $56.12 analyst target, reaching at least $55 within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSupport levels break when the fundamental backdrop deteriorates; if oil services demand weakens due to a decline in exploration capital spending, support zones become resistance on the way down. | ||
Revenue growth is weak and earnings growth is essentially flat, while on-balance volume is declining and price momentum scores only 3.4 out of 10, indicating the market does not currently believe in a near-term earnings acceleration for SLB. Momentum breakdown | Revenue growth recovers to exceed 5% year-over-year and momentum score rises above 5.0 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOil services companies are cyclically driven by upstream capital expenditure budgets; even without organic growth, stable maintenance revenues and the 2.93% average earnings beat can sustain the current valuation. | ||
SLB has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.9%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and management's ability to reliably meet or exceed expectations in a capital-intensive services environment.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters, maintaining an average surprise of at least 2% over the next 12 months.
CounterAverage surprises of only 2.9% suggest very tight guidance management rather than genuine outperformance, and any oil services demand slowdown could quickly break the streak.
The dividend coverage ratio of 220% suggests the dividend is well-covered by earnings, providing a yield-based floor for income-oriented investors even if price appreciation is limited at current levels.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage remains above 150% and the absolute dividend payment is maintained or increased over the next 12 months.
CounterA coverage ratio of 220% against a backdrop of flat earnings growth and weak revenue may narrow quickly if a single quarter misses; oil services dividends historically have been cut in down-cycles.
SLB scores 9.6 on support and resistance technicals and 8.5 overall on the technical dimension, with price sitting on a well-established support zone, suggesting the market structure favors a near-term bounce if demand fundamentals stabilize.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the $51.91 support level and advances toward the $56.12 analyst target, reaching at least $55 within 12 months.
CounterSupport levels break when the fundamental backdrop deteriorates; if oil services demand weakens due to a decline in exploration capital spending, support zones become resistance on the way down.
Revenue growth is weak and earnings growth is essentially flat, while on-balance volume is declining and price momentum scores only 3.4 out of 10, indicating the market does not currently believe in a near-term earnings acceleration for SLB.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth recovers to exceed 5% year-over-year and momentum score rises above 5.0 within 12 months.
CounterOil services companies are cyclically driven by upstream capital expenditure budgets; even without organic growth, stable maintenance revenues and the 2.93% average earnings beat can sustain the current valuation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 21)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=9)
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,988,750 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.27
Upside
+8.6%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5. Top dim: Technical at 7.9; weakest: Growth at 1.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Momentum at 4.5, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Technical Support StrongTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $51.91, breaking the identified support level.
- P3Weak Growth Negative Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 2% for more than 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Dividend Sustainability Yield
Trip ifDividend coverage ratio falls below 120%, indicating payout is at risk.