Value
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 52.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
SLAB · Why this verdict
Why Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 20% year-over-year with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but analyst estimates have fallen 21.4% over the past 30 days, creating a divergence between historical growth and deteriorating forward expectations. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst forward estimates stabilize and recover to within 10% of the 30-days-ago level by the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimate cuts of this magnitude often precede guidance reductions; if the company cuts guidance formally, price could fall another 15 to 20% as the multiple re-rates lower. | ||
91% of revenue comes from markets outside the United States, creating significant exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and regional demand downturns in any single international market. Bear case | International revenue concentration remains below 95% and no single non-US geography represents more than 50% of total revenue over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic diversification across many international markets may actually reduce single-country risk compared to a US-only business, and diversified IoT end markets spread the demand profile. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 10.59 is exceptionally elevated, indicating option traders are paying a large premium for downside protection, which typically signals institutional hedging against a meaningful price decline or event risk. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 6 months as the risk event resolves and hedging demand normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can also be a contrarian buy signal if the hedging is based on overcautious sentiment; once fear peaks, a relief rally can be sharp. | ||
On-balance volume is rising and the stock is above its 200-day moving average, suggesting institutional accumulation despite the negative sentiment, which could provide a price floor if fundamentals stabilize. Momentum breakdown | Stock price holds above $200 and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend for at least 6 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is currently above the $217 stop-loss level but the risk-reward is negative at -1.29; volume accumulation alone cannot offset deteriorating fundamentals if estimate cuts continue. | ||
Revenue grew 20% year-over-year with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but analyst estimates have fallen 21.4% over the past 30 days, creating a divergence between historical growth and deteriorating forward expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst forward estimates stabilize and recover to within 10% of the 30-days-ago level by the next earnings report.
CounterEstimate cuts of this magnitude often precede guidance reductions; if the company cuts guidance formally, price could fall another 15 to 20% as the multiple re-rates lower.
91% of revenue comes from markets outside the United States, creating significant exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and regional demand downturns in any single international market.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue concentration remains below 95% and no single non-US geography represents more than 50% of total revenue over 12 months.
CounterGeographic diversification across many international markets may actually reduce single-country risk compared to a US-only business, and diversified IoT end markets spread the demand profile.
The put-to-call ratio of 10.59 is exceptionally elevated, indicating option traders are paying a large premium for downside protection, which typically signals institutional hedging against a meaningful price decline or event risk.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 6 months as the risk event resolves and hedging demand normalizes.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can also be a contrarian buy signal if the hedging is based on overcautious sentiment; once fear peaks, a relief rally can be sharp.
On-balance volume is rising and the stock is above its 200-day moving average, suggesting institutional accumulation despite the negative sentiment, which could provide a price floor if fundamentals stabilize.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price holds above $200 and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend for at least 6 consecutive months.
CounterPrice is currently above the $217 stop-loss level but the risk-reward is negative at -1.29; volume accumulation alone cannot offset deteriorating fundamentals if estimate cuts continue.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Silicon Laboratories achieved 20% revenue growth and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but analyst estimate cuts of 21% over 30 days and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 10.59 signal the market is pricing in material downside risk that current price levels do not fully reflect.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 0.2%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-21.4%)
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,739,844 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $160
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
- ▸Estimates down -21.4% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.74
Upside
-11.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.36>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.6, Growth at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Sentiment at 3.7, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Vs Estimate Cuts
Trip ifAnalyst forward EPS estimates decline by more than 30% over any subsequent 30-day period.
- P2Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 5.0 for more than 60 consecutive days.
- P3Geographic Revenue Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue falls below 80% of total revenue, indicating material loss of non-US business, or rises above 95%, indicating greater concentration risk.
- P4Volume Accumulation Above 200ma
Trip ifStock price drops below $185, more than 16% below the current price of $220.34.