Value
5.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 147.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.56
SKYD · Why this verdict
Why Skydance (SKYD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Skydance is a low-quality, leveraged entertainment name that is down 47% from its high, with only 3.5% upside to the analyst target and volatile earnings, partly offset by a recent insider purchase and improving momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, a net margin scoring 0 and a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6. Quality breakdown | Net margin should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA weak quality score on a company still integrating a large merger may understate normalized profitability. | ||
The analyst target of $8.23 is only 3.5% above the $7.95 price, against 15.0% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.24. Analyst target | Analyst targets should rise well above $8.23 or the price should pull back before the stock offers a better setup. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice momentum is positive with rising on-balance volume, and analysts may raise targets after the November earnings. | ||
EPS has been split 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with losses of -$0.12 in each of two quarters and an average surprise of -200%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should stay positive and meet estimates in the report due 2026-11-09. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe last two reports beat (+$0.18 and +$0.23), so the earlier losses may have been one-time merger costs. | ||
Debt/equity is 2.7, implied volatility is 219% and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.66, showing leverage risk and bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | Debt/equity should fall below 2.0 and the put/call ratio should drop below 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest and put buying can fuel a squeeze if earnings surprise to the upside. | ||
Insiders bought $13,720,000 of stock (0.034% of market cap) in 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal. Insider | Insider buying should continue without offsetting selling over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe warnings cite 6 insider sales at 0.09% of market cap, so the buying signal is mixed and may be one large holder. | ||
Quality is 2.6/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, a net margin scoring 0 and a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA weak quality score on a company still integrating a large merger may understate normalized profitability.
The analyst target of $8.23 is only 3.5% above the $7.95 price, against 15.0% downside, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.24.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise well above $8.23 or the price should pull back before the stock offers a better setup.
CounterPrice momentum is positive with rising on-balance volume, and analysts may raise targets after the November earnings.
EPS has been split 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with losses of -$0.12 in each of two quarters and an average surprise of -200%.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should stay positive and meet estimates in the report due 2026-11-09.
CounterThe last two reports beat (+$0.18 and +$0.23), so the earlier losses may have been one-time merger costs.
Debt/equity is 2.7, implied volatility is 219% and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.66, showing leverage risk and bearish positioning.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Debt/equity should fall below 2.0 and the put/call ratio should drop below 1.0.
CounterHigh short interest and put buying can fuel a squeeze if earnings surprise to the upside.
Insiders bought $13,720,000 of stock (0.034% of market cap) in 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue without offsetting selling over the next 12 months.
CounterThe warnings cite 6 insider sales at 0.09% of market cap, so the buying signal is mixed and may be one large holder.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $13,720,000 (0.034% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.75
- ▸High IV: 228%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+2.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.1<1.5@spot outcome against Insider at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.15.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.0, Momentum at 6.3, and Value at 5.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Technical at 1.5, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $7.39 stop level.
- P3Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-09 report.
- P4High Leverage And Options Risk
Trip ifDebt/equity rises above 3.5 from the current 2.7.
- P5Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $5M over 90 days.