Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
- ▸Attractively valued
SKHY · Why this verdict
Why SK hynix (SKHY) is rated DATA_ISSUE
Updated
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VerdictDATA_ISSUE
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SKHY shows elite fundamental quality (61% ROE, wide moat, Rule of 40 of 218) and explosive 198% YoY growth, best-in-class among peers, but the engine's own cycle-peak gate failed on a forward P/E of 3.8x and a depressed forward/trailing ratio of 0.18x, flagging that current earnings likely represent a cyclical peak rather than a sustainable run-rate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue growth is extremely strong at 198% YoY, reflecting the current up-cycle in memory-chip demand. Growth breakdown | Growth should stay elevated, well above 50% YoY, for the thesis of a durable up-cycle to hold. | — |
| Counter198% YoY growth is measured off a cyclical trough, so the comparison base is unusually easy and growth rates should be expected to decelerate sharply as the cycle matures. | ||
The business shows elite quality metrics — 61% ROE, 57% margins, a Rule-of-40 score of 218, and a wide economic moat — despite a flagged earnings-quality red flag on FCF conversion at 34% of net income. Quality breakdown | ROE and margins should stay well above sector averages, ROE above 30%, even if they moderate from current elite levels. | — |
| CounterThese elite metrics are being measured near a cyclical earnings peak per the cycle-peak gate failure, so current ROE and margins may mean-revert sharply lower alongside the broader memory-chip cycle. | ||
The engine's semiconductor-cycle-peak check failed — a forward P/E of 3.8x, well below the 10x threshold, combined with a forward/trailing P/E ratio of 0.18x, below the 0.30x threshold, suggests EPS has just expanded off a trough, a classic signature of peak cyclical earnings. Bear case | For the cycle-peak concern to be overstated, forward EPS estimates should continue growing rather than reversing over the next few quarters. | — |
| CounterMemory-chip earnings can sustain multi-year upcycles when driven by structural demand such as AI-related memory demand, so a low forward/trailing ratio doesn't automatically mean an imminent downturn. | ||
The company is ranked best in class among peers, with attractive P/E and superior ROE relative to peer semiconductor companies. Peer-rank breakdown | Peer-relative rankings on value and quality should stay in the top quartile over the next several quarters. | — |
| CounterPeer-relative rankings measured near a sector-wide cyclical peak could compress quickly if the whole peer group's earnings reset together, preserving relative rank but at much lower absolute quality. | ||
Revenue growth is extremely strong at 198% YoY, reflecting the current up-cycle in memory-chip demand.
—Growth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth should stay elevated, well above 50% YoY, for the thesis of a durable up-cycle to hold.
Counter198% YoY growth is measured off a cyclical trough, so the comparison base is unusually easy and growth rates should be expected to decelerate sharply as the cycle matures.
The business shows elite quality metrics — 61% ROE, 57% margins, a Rule-of-40 score of 218, and a wide economic moat — despite a flagged earnings-quality red flag on FCF conversion at 34% of net income.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE and margins should stay well above sector averages, ROE above 30%, even if they moderate from current elite levels.
CounterThese elite metrics are being measured near a cyclical earnings peak per the cycle-peak gate failure, so current ROE and margins may mean-revert sharply lower alongside the broader memory-chip cycle.
The engine's semiconductor-cycle-peak check failed — a forward P/E of 3.8x, well below the 10x threshold, combined with a forward/trailing P/E ratio of 0.18x, below the 0.30x threshold, suggests EPS has just expanded off a trough, a classic signature of peak cyclical earnings.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- For the cycle-peak concern to be overstated, forward EPS estimates should continue growing rather than reversing over the next few quarters.
CounterMemory-chip earnings can sustain multi-year upcycles when driven by structural demand such as AI-related memory demand, so a low forward/trailing ratio doesn't automatically mean an imminent downturn.
The company is ranked best in class among peers, with attractive P/E and superior ROE relative to peer semiconductor companies.
—Peer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Peer-relative rankings on value and quality should stay in the top quartile over the next several quarters.
CounterPeer-relative rankings measured near a sector-wide cyclical peak could compress quickly if the whole peer group's earnings reset together, preserving relative rank but at much lower absolute quality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 93%
- ▸Strong margins: 86%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 50%Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
8.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 50%Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.3 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 106%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
No current price available — cannot compute entry, target, or stop. Upstream data source (Alpaca/yfinance) did not return a price for this run.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L0:DATA_ISSUE_NO_PRICEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.3x,ratio=0.21x
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
0.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.32>1.3
Investment implication
The DATA_ISSUE verdict reflects the CYCLE_PEAK gate's fwd=4.3x,ratio=0.21x outcome against Value at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Quality at 9.1, and Peer rank at 8.6; the weakest are Technical at 5.0, Insider at 5.0, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Semiconductor Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifForward EPS estimates are revised down by more than 20% within the next 2 quarters, confirming the cycle-peak signal was correctly flagging an imminent earnings reversal.
- P2Elite Quality Metrics
Trip ifROE falls below 20%, from the current 61%, within the next 4 quarters, confirming the elite quality metrics were cyclically inflated rather than structural.
- P3Explosive Yoy Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 30% YoY within the next 3 quarters, confirming the current 198% growth rate was a trough-comparison artifact rather than a durable trend.
- P4Best In Class Peer Standing
Trip ifThe company's quality peer-rank falls out of the top quartile, below the 75th percentile, within the next 2 quarters, ending its best-in-class standing.