Value
9.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
SKHY · Why this verdict
Why SK hynix (SKHY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SK hynix is a best-in-class semiconductor company with 93% ROE, 70% margins and a 3.0x forward P/E, with 78.1% upside to the analyst target, but momentum is weak and the latest quarter missed estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue rose from 22.2 trillion in June 2025 to 79.3 trillion in June 2026, and the next-quarter estimate is 131.5 trillion (reported currency). Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue reaches the 131.5 trillion estimate and stays above 100 trillion over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe revenue figures are provisional and reflect a steep memory upcycle, and the sharp rise sets a high bar for a cooling market to repeat. | ||
The company earns an excellent 93% ROE and strong margins of 70%, with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 50% and ROE stays above 40% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSemiconductor memory profits are cyclical, and 70% margins may mark a cycle peak rather than a sustainable level. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.0x with a PEG of 0.16 and sits 78.1% below the $226.76 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 5.2. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $226.76 target while forward P/E stays below 8x over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 3.0x may signal that the market expects earnings to fall sharply, and the 52-week position score of 2.7 shows the stock is well below its highs. | ||
Momentum scores 2.4 out of 10 with falling on-balance volume (volume distribution), and implied volatility is high at 96%. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and on-balance volume stabilizes within two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh-quality businesses with weak momentum often recover, and the stock sits near an entry level of $120.97, so weakness may be a buying opportunity. | ||
The latest quarter missed estimates at 4.10 versus 6.24 (-34.2%) after a huge prior beat of 90.62 versus 4.87, showing wide swings between results and forecasts. Earnings | EPS comes within 10% of consensus in the next two reports. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly two quarters of earnings history are available and the swings may reflect currency or reporting-basis differences rather than operating weakness. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose from 22.2 trillion in June 2025 to 79.3 trillion in June 2026, and the next-quarter estimate is 131.5 trillion (reported currency).
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the 131.5 trillion estimate and stays above 100 trillion over the next four quarters.
CounterThe revenue figures are provisional and reflect a steep memory upcycle, and the sharp rise sets a high bar for a cooling market to repeat.
The company earns an excellent 93% ROE and strong margins of 70%, with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 50% and ROE stays above 40% over the next 12 months.
CounterSemiconductor memory profits are cyclical, and 70% margins may mark a cycle peak rather than a sustainable level.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.0x with a PEG of 0.16 and sits 78.1% below the $226.76 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 5.2.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $226.76 target while forward P/E stays below 8x over 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 3.0x may signal that the market expects earnings to fall sharply, and the 52-week position score of 2.7 shows the stock is well below its highs.
Momentum scores 2.4 out of 10 with falling on-balance volume (volume distribution), and implied volatility is high at 96%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and on-balance volume stabilizes within two quarters.
CounterHigh-quality businesses with weak momentum often recover, and the stock sits near an entry level of $120.97, so weakness may be a buying opportunity.
The latest quarter missed estimates at 4.10 versus 6.24 (-34.2%) after a huge prior beat of 90.62 versus 4.87, showing wide swings between results and forecasts.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS comes within 10% of consensus in the next two reports.
CounterOnly two quarters of earnings history are available and the swings may reflect currency or reporting-basis differences rather than operating weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 93%
- ▸Strong margins: 70%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 94%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
9.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 1.8 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.1 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Technology:5/10
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.58
Upside
+68.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.1) with weak momentum (2.1)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.47>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.1<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.58.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.7, and Quality at 9.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Margins And Returns
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 40% from the current 70%.
- P2Explosive Revenue Expansion
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below 60 trillion from the current 79.3 trillion.
- P3Deep Value And Analyst Upside
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 3.0x.
- P4Weak Momentum Volume Distribution
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% below the current $127.34 to under $108.24.
- P5Volatile Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.