Value
9.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
SKHY · Why this verdict
Why SK hynix (SKHY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SK hynix pairs exceptional margins, a very low forward multiple and surging revenue with a temporary momentum slump, though weak earnings-to-cash conversion is a flag.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue reached 79.3 trillion in the June 2026 quarter versus 22.2 trillion a year earlier, about 3.6 times higher. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should keep growing toward the 99.7 trillion next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, and a growth rate this steep is unlikely to persist. | ||
The company posts a 93% return on equity and 86% margins, with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 and a wide moat. Quality breakdown | Margins and returns should remain near current levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 34% of net income, which the engine flags as an earnings-quality red flag. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 4.0x with a PEG of 0.28, which the engine rates as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should stay low or re-rate upward as earnings keep growing. | →Stable |
| CounterMemory-chip earnings can peak abruptly, and a low forward multiple may simply price in an earnings decline. | ||
Momentum scores 2.8, under the 4.5 bar, with RSI near 20 and price below the 200-day average, a weak patch for a business with a quality score of 8.9. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above the 4.5 bar as the oversold reading unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume distribution and a break below the 200-day average can mark the start of a longer downtrend before earnings in 9 days. | ||
The analyst target of $219.43 implies 60.8% upside from the $136.49 price with a 5.1 reward-to-risk ratio. Estimated upside | Price should move toward the analyst target as earnings confirm the revenue surge. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility of 73% and a beta above 2 mean the price can swing sharply against the target. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached 79.3 trillion in the June 2026 quarter versus 22.2 trillion a year earlier, about 3.6 times higher.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep growing toward the 99.7 trillion next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, and a growth rate this steep is unlikely to persist.
The company posts a 93% return on equity and 86% margins, with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 and a wide moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and returns should remain near current levels over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 34% of net income, which the engine flags as an earnings-quality red flag.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 4.0x with a PEG of 0.28, which the engine rates as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should stay low or re-rate upward as earnings keep growing.
CounterMemory-chip earnings can peak abruptly, and a low forward multiple may simply price in an earnings decline.
Momentum scores 2.8, under the 4.5 bar, with RSI near 20 and price below the 200-day average, a weak patch for a business with a quality score of 8.9.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above the 4.5 bar as the oversold reading unwinds.
CounterVolume distribution and a break below the 200-day average can mark the start of a longer downtrend before earnings in 9 days.
The analyst target of $219.43 implies 60.8% upside from the $136.49 price with a 5.1 reward-to-risk ratio.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target as earnings confirm the revenue surge.
CounterImplied volatility of 73% and a beta above 2 mean the price can swing sharply against the target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 2.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 93%
- ▸Strong margins: 86%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 77%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
8.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.7 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.8 < 4.5 minimum; Earnings in 7 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Technology:4/10
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.34
Upside
+53.7%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.9) with weak momentum (1.8)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.39>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 4.34.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Quality at 8.9, and Peer rank at 8.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.34 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 10x from the current 4.0x.
- P2Elite Margins And Returns
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 40% from the current 86% level.
- P3Revenue Surge Multiple Quarters
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below 70 trillion from the latest 79.3 trillion.
- P4Oversold Momentum Slump Temporary
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for more than 8 weeks.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $150 from the current $219.43.