Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 5.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
SII · Why this verdict
Why Sprott (SII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sprott Inc. is a high-quality asset manager scoring 8.7 out of 10 on quality metrics with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and free cash flow conversion of 258% of net income, but the analyst price target has already been reached with only 2.6% upside remaining, making patience for a pullback the disciplined course of action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sprott scores 8.7 out of 10 on quality, reflecting a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 22%, and free cash flow conversion of 258% of net income, marking it as a high-quality asset management franchise with durable cash generation. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 8.0 over the next 12 months as margins and cash generation remain consistent. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management quality scores are heavily dependent on assets under management levels; a significant pullback in gold or precious metals prices — Sprott's primary market — could rapidly compress revenue and margins. | ||
Sprott ranks as an industry growth leader among asset management peers, with 3 of 4 recent quarters showing beats and an average positive earnings surprise of 34%, indicating strong operating leverage and AUM growth. Earnings | Earnings beat continues in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a significant miss of negative 35.8%, suggesting earnings volatility is high and the growth trajectory may not be as smooth as the aggregate beat count implies. | ||
The current price of $128.35 has reached and slightly exceeded the analyst price target range, with only 2.6% remaining upside to the take-profit level of $131.75, making new entry at these levels a poor risk-adjusted decision. Warnings | Price pulls back to the support entry target of $114.86, more than 10% below current price, creating a more favorable entry point with better asymmetry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum indicators including above-200-day moving average positioning and rising on-balance volume suggest the stock could continue to grind higher before any meaningful pullback. | ||
Sprott ranks above peers on return on equity within the asset management industry, supported by lean operations and high margin characteristics that allow the company to generate superior returns relative to the capital it employs. Peer-rank breakdown | Return on equity remains above peer median for at least 3 of the next 4 annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterSuperior ROE in asset management is often tied to bull market conditions in the metals and alternatives space; a regime shift could flatten the peer-rank advantage. | ||
Sprott scores 8.7 out of 10 on quality, reflecting a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 22%, and free cash flow conversion of 258% of net income, marking it as a high-quality asset management franchise with durable cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 8.0 over the next 12 months as margins and cash generation remain consistent.
CounterAsset management quality scores are heavily dependent on assets under management levels; a significant pullback in gold or precious metals prices — Sprott's primary market — could rapidly compress revenue and margins.
Sprott ranks as an industry growth leader among asset management peers, with 3 of 4 recent quarters showing beats and an average positive earnings surprise of 34%, indicating strong operating leverage and AUM growth.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat continues in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 15%.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a significant miss of negative 35.8%, suggesting earnings volatility is high and the growth trajectory may not be as smooth as the aggregate beat count implies.
The current price of $128.35 has reached and slightly exceeded the analyst price target range, with only 2.6% remaining upside to the take-profit level of $131.75, making new entry at these levels a poor risk-adjusted decision.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to the support entry target of $114.86, more than 10% below current price, creating a more favorable entry point with better asymmetry.
CounterMomentum indicators including above-200-day moving average positioning and rising on-balance volume suggest the stock could continue to grind higher before any meaningful pullback.
Sprott ranks above peers on return on equity within the asset management industry, supported by lean operations and high margin characteristics that allow the company to generate superior returns relative to the capital it employs.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above peer median for at least 3 of the next 4 annual reporting periods.
CounterSuperior ROE in asset management is often tied to bull market conditions in the metals and alternatives space; a regime shift could flatten the peer-rank advantage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.1 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 200% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 2.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 5.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.70
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.16, quality 8.9/10, growth 9.2/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.22
Upside
+16.5%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.9 and growth 9.2 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.22 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Quality at 8.9, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.0, indicating a meaningful deterioration in margins, cash conversion, or financial health metrics.
- P2Industry Leading Earnings Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, suggesting the earnings growth story is breaking down.
- P3Target Reached Wait For Entry
Trip ifStock price rises above $140, more than 9% above current price of $128.35, without analyst target upgrades, further worsening the risk-reward for new entry.
- P4Superior Roe Peer Rank
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 12%, more than 50% below current elevated levels, indicating operating leverage is reversing.