Shopify (SHOP) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Reported EPS
- $0.42
- Estimate
- $0.40
- Surprise
- +5.0%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $3.58B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.1 → 5.9/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Shopify (SHOP) beat the $0.40 estimate with diluted EPS of $0.42 — a clear 5.0% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.1/10) to Buy (Wait) at 5.9/10 after the report — the engine's score fell despite the beat.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates SHOP Sell at 5.8/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +5.0% surprise compares with a +2.1% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-03.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
- High-quality business
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 8.3%
- Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
- Expensive valuation
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $145.12
- Price target
- $157.46
- Stop
- $135.45
- Upside to target
- +8.5%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.2:1
The stock trades at 96.0× trailing but 59.5× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
SHOP at TrendMatrix's latest read
Technology names get repriced on forward expectations more than trailing prints — a quarter here is read through next-year growth and multiple, not the EPS line alone.
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $189.30B
- P/E (fwd)
- 59.5
- P/E (ttm)
- 96.0
- 52-week range
- $94.00–$182.19
- Off 52-week high
- 20.3%
- RSI (14)
- 46
- Volume vs avg
- 0.67×
- Score today
- 5.8/10