Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
- ▸Attractively valued
SHBI · Why this verdict
Why Shore Bancshares (SHBI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Shore Bancshares combines a strong earnings beat streak, cheap valuation, and a strong Piotroski quality score, but the stock has already reached its analyst target near 52-week highs, and elevated put/call positioning signals the options market is hedging against downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings surprises can be driven by one-off credit-provision releases that don't repeat, making the streak fragile. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.42, levels the engine flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.7, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high with the target reached, suggesting the market has already priced in most of this valuation discount. | ||
The bank holds a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and strong margins of 28%. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and margins should hold above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score is a point-in-time snapshot that can shift quickly with a change in loan-loss provisioning or net interest margin. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -17.9% downside, and sits just 2.3% below its 52-week high. Bear case | The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBank analyst targets shift with rate-cycle expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve. | ||
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 with the stock trading above its $20 max-pain level and high implied volatility of 88%. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should compress below 1.0 over the next 12 months if downside hedging fades. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio combined with a stock already at its analyst target could reflect informed positioning ahead of a genuine pullback rather than excess fear. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterRegional bank earnings surprises can be driven by one-off credit-provision releases that don't repeat, making the streak fragile.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.42, levels the engine flags as attractively valued.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.7, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high with the target reached, suggesting the market has already priced in most of this valuation discount.
The bank holds a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and strong margins of 28%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and margins should hold above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterA high Piotroski score is a point-in-time snapshot that can shift quickly with a change in loan-loss provisioning or net interest margin.
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -17.9% downside, and sits just 2.3% below its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised.
CounterBank analyst targets shift with rate-cycle expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve.
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 with the stock trading above its $20 max-pain level and high implied volatility of 88%.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should compress below 1.0 over the next 12 months if downside hedging fades.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio combined with a stock already at its analyst target could reflect informed positioning ahead of a genuine pullback rather than excess fear.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $3,551 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.08
Upside
-15.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.8 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Peer rank at 5.4, and Sentiment at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.08 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company beats earnings less than 2 out of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Cheap Peg ValuationTripped
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 or forward P/E exceeds 15x without a matching share price increase.
- P3Strong Piotroski Quality
Trip ifThe Piotroski F-Score falls below 6, or margins fall below 20%, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifStock price falls more than 15% from current levels while the analyst target stays flat, or the price rises more than 5% above the current 52-week high.
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0, or implied volatility exceeds 110%.