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SGMLSigma Lithium CorporationSell5.1·$11.93+5.30%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Sigma Lithium is a mining-stage lithium company with a low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and four consecutive earnings misses averaging -113% surprise, indicating the business is significantly underperforming expectations while operating in a structurally challenged price environment for lithium.

Thesis pillars

  • Declining Revenue No MoatStable
  • Weak Piotroski Score Quality ConcernsImproving
  • Consistent Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.93: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Sigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It serves lithium-ion battery supply chain for electric vehicle industries. The company was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and changed its name to Sigma... Read more

$11.93+46.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#19 of 33 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.28%
Stop $11.15Target $17.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$20.63+72.9%2 analysts
$17.53our TP
$11.93price
$20.63mean
$21

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.93: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16

Recent Developments — Sigma Lithium Corporation

Generated 2026-08-16T18:22:07Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 13, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Analyst upside: 46%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA38.7
Profit Mgn-19.3%
ROE-31.6%
Rev Growth223.9%
Beta0.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV118%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.9
Gap
7.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.9
Value Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
8.8
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 8.2>=5.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.10Resistance $12.11

Price Targets

$11
$18
A.Upside+46.2%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts7
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$21

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-13 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGML stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $11.93: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.15. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SGML stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.53 (+46.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.15. Stop-loss: $11.15.

What are the risks of investing in SGML?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is SGML overvalued or undervalued?

Sigma Lithium Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGML?

7 analysts cover SGML with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Sigma Lithium Corporation do?Sigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It serves...

Sigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It serves lithium-ion battery supply chain for electric vehicle industries. The company was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and changed its name to Sigma Lithium Corporation in July 2021. Sigma Lithium Corporation is based in Toronto, Canada.

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