Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
SFST · Why this verdict
Why Southern First Bancshares (SFST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Southern First Bancshares combines a strong earnings beat streak with cheap valuation and 26% growth, but the stock has already reached its analyst target near 52-week highs, limiting further modeled upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 12.65%. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank earnings can be volatile quarter to quarter due to credit provisioning, so a beat streak can break abruptly on a single reserve build. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.12, levels the engine flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if growth continues. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterRegional banks often trade at persistently low multiples due to rate-cycle and credit-risk perceptions, so a cheap valuation alone may not close. | ||
Revenue is growing 26% year-over-year, a pace the engine flags as a strong growth profile. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth thesis. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth this strong for a regional bank is often tied to a specific loan-growth cycle that can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -7.6% downside, and sits just 4.0% below its 52-week high. Bear case | The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterBank analyst targets get revised frequently with rate expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve. | ||
Momentum remains constructive with price trading above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the stock already near its 52-week high and the target reached, momentum could stall or reverse without a fresh earnings catalyst. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 12.65%.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterRegional bank earnings can be volatile quarter to quarter due to credit provisioning, so a beat streak can break abruptly on a single reserve build.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.12, levels the engine flags as attractively valued.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5, or the stock should re-rate higher, over the next 12 months if growth continues.
CounterRegional banks often trade at persistently low multiples due to rate-cycle and credit-risk perceptions, so a cheap valuation alone may not close.
Revenue is growing 26% year-over-year, a pace the engine flags as a strong growth profile.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth thesis.
CounterGrowth this strong for a regional bank is often tied to a specific loan-growth cycle that can decelerate sharply once comparisons normalize.
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -7.6% downside, and sits just 4.0% below its 52-week high.
Tripped↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The downside-to-target gap should narrow or turn positive only if analyst targets are raised.
CounterBank analyst targets get revised frequently with rate expectations, so a stretched target today doesn't preclude upside if net interest margin estimates improve.
Momentum remains constructive with price trading above its 200-day moving average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterWith the stock already near its 52-week high and the target reached, momentum could stall or reverse without a fresh earnings catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $46,359 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-7.1%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.3; weakest: Momentum at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Value at 8.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Peer rank at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company beats earnings less than 2 out of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Cheap Peg ValuationTripped
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 or forward P/E exceeds 15x without a matching share price increase.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already ReachedTripped
Trip ifStock price falls more than 8% from current levels while the analyst target stays flat, or the price rises more than 5% above the current 52-week high.
- P5Above 200ma Momentum
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive quarters.