Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.73
SEIC · Why this verdict
Why SEI Investments (SEIC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company scores 8.3 out of 10 on business quality — the highest quality score in this batch — with a 30% return on equity, 31% net margins, and a wide economic moat designation, reflecting durable competitive advantages in investment management platforms and outsourced services. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 7.5 and return on equity stays above 25% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management businesses see quality metrics compress when markets decline, as revenue is fee-based and tied to assets under management; a sustained equity market correction of 20% or more would reduce fees and margins proportionally. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 16.3%, including a standout 48.8% beat in July 2025 that indicates strong operating leverage and consistent execution above analyst expectations. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 48.8% beat in July 2025 may be a one-quarter anomaly from a specific performance fee or asset realization; removing that outlier, the average surprise would be much lower and less distinctive as a signal. | ||
With only 1.8% upside to the analyst target of $91.23 from the current $89.57, and the reward-to-risk ratio at 0.5, the stock is priced to perfection at current levels, reducing the attractiveness of new entries even though the fundamental quality is excellent. Warnings | Analyst consensus price target rises above $105, more than 17% above the current $89.57, as continued beat-and-raise quarters prompt upward estimate revisions. | →Stable |
| CounterIn high-quality compounder businesses, analyst targets are routinely exceeded and revised upward; the current thin upside may simply reflect the pace of target revision lagging actual business performance. | ||
The company ranks in the top third of its peer group on value, quality, and growth simultaneously — a rare combination in asset management — with a 7.1 out of 10 growth peer rank score reflecting that it is growing faster than most competitors while maintaining premium profitability. Peer-rank breakdown | The company maintains top-tercile peer ranking on at least 2 of the 3 peer rank dimensions over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management is a highly competitive sector with low barriers to entry for index-based products; the peer ranking advantage may erode as passive investing continues to shift fee pools away from active managers where SEI operates. | ||
The company scores 8.3 out of 10 on business quality — the highest quality score in this batch — with a 30% return on equity, 31% net margins, and a wide economic moat designation, reflecting durable competitive advantages in investment management platforms and outsourced services.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 7.5 and return on equity stays above 25% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterAsset management businesses see quality metrics compress when markets decline, as revenue is fee-based and tied to assets under management; a sustained equity market correction of 20% or more would reduce fees and margins proportionally.
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 16.3%, including a standout 48.8% beat in July 2025 that indicates strong operating leverage and consistent execution above analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterThe 48.8% beat in July 2025 may be a one-quarter anomaly from a specific performance fee or asset realization; removing that outlier, the average surprise would be much lower and less distinctive as a signal.
With only 1.8% upside to the analyst target of $91.23 from the current $89.57, and the reward-to-risk ratio at 0.5, the stock is priced to perfection at current levels, reducing the attractiveness of new entries even though the fundamental quality is excellent.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $105, more than 17% above the current $89.57, as continued beat-and-raise quarters prompt upward estimate revisions.
CounterIn high-quality compounder businesses, analyst targets are routinely exceeded and revised upward; the current thin upside may simply reflect the pace of target revision lagging actual business performance.
The company ranks in the top third of its peer group on value, quality, and growth simultaneously — a rare combination in asset management — with a 7.1 out of 10 growth peer rank score reflecting that it is growing faster than most competitors while maintaining premium profitability.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains top-tercile peer ranking on at least 2 of the 3 peer rank dimensions over the next 12 months.
CounterAsset management is a highly competitive sector with low barriers to entry for index-based products; the peer ranking advantage may erode as passive investing continues to shift fee pools away from active managers where SEI operates.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SEI Investments has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats including a 48.8% beat, carries a 30% return on equity with a wide economic moat and top-tier quality score of 8.3 out of 10, but the stock has effectively reached its analyst target with only 1.8% remaining upside, limiting the near-term setup despite strong fundamentals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9 |
| ROA | 9.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,258,153 (0.057% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 114.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.04
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 19d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Momentum at 7.0, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Insider at 3.9, and Sentiment at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Quality Score
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.0 or return on equity drops below 20%, declining more than 10 percentage points from the current 30% level.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.
- P3Analyst Target Reached Thin Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $100, more than 11% above the current $89.57, confirming upward estimate revision momentum.
- P4Peer Leading Metrics Across Dimensions
Trip ifPeer rank on quality falls below the 50th percentile for more than 2 consecutive quarters, indicating competitors are closing the quality gap.