Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
SD · Why this verdict
Why SandRidge Energy (SD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SandRidge Energy pairs a cheap valuation (8.9x forward P/E, PEG 0.21) and high-margin compounder quality with a strong 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but near-term technicals have turned bearish and the stock has already reached its analyst price target, favoring a wait-for-pullback approach over an immediate add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SandRidge trades at a forward P/E of 8.9x with a PEG of 0.21, indicating the stock is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should remain below 10x while earnings continue to grow, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels as the value gap closes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe cheap multiple may reflect the market pricing in commodity-driven earnings that could reverse if oil & gas prices soften. | ||
The business shows compounder-level quality: 46% margins, a wide economic moat, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay near 40%+ and the Piotroski score should remain at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings-quality red flag shows free cash flow at -9% of net income, meaning reported quality could be overstated relative to actual cash generation. | ||
SandRidge has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a strong earnings catalyst score reflecting this track record. Catalyst breakdown | The company should maintain a beat rate of at least 3 of 4 quarters (75%) going into the next print. | →Stable |
| CounterA single earnings miss already appeared in the most recent print (-8.11% surprise), and the beat streak could break down further as growth normalizes. | ||
Technical momentum has turned bearish, with RSI at 24 flagging capitulation risk, falling on-balance volume, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.79 signaling defensive options positioning. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and the put/call ratio should fall back below 1.5 over the next quarter to confirm the technical picture is stabilizing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe pullback is occurring within a still-rising 200-day moving average (+4.1% over 30 days), which the data itself notes is a pullback in an uptrend, not confirmed weakness. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving just -3.7% upside per the engine's valuation check, arguing for a pullback before adding exposure. Warnings | A meaningful pullback (5%+ from current price) should occur, restoring positive analyst upside before the position is added to. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf earnings continue to beat and analysts raise price targets, the target-reached signal could be stale and the stock could keep climbing without ever offering the anticipated pullback entry. | ||
SandRidge trades at a forward P/E of 8.9x with a PEG of 0.21, indicating the stock is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should remain below 10x while earnings continue to grow, or the multiple should expand toward peer levels as the value gap closes.
CounterThe cheap multiple may reflect the market pricing in commodity-driven earnings that could reverse if oil & gas prices soften.
The business shows compounder-level quality: 46% margins, a wide economic moat, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay near 40%+ and the Piotroski score should remain at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters.
CounterAn earnings-quality red flag shows free cash flow at -9% of net income, meaning reported quality could be overstated relative to actual cash generation.
SandRidge has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a strong earnings catalyst score reflecting this track record.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company should maintain a beat rate of at least 3 of 4 quarters (75%) going into the next print.
CounterA single earnings miss already appeared in the most recent print (-8.11% surprise), and the beat streak could break down further as growth normalizes.
Technical momentum has turned bearish, with RSI at 24 flagging capitulation risk, falling on-balance volume, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.79 signaling defensive options positioning.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and the put/call ratio should fall back below 1.5 over the next quarter to confirm the technical picture is stabilizing.
CounterThe pullback is occurring within a still-rising 200-day moving average (+4.1% over 30 days), which the data itself notes is a pullback in an uptrend, not confirmed weakness.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving just -3.7% upside per the engine's valuation check, arguing for a pullback before adding exposure.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A meaningful pullback (5%+ from current price) should occur, restoring positive analyst upside before the position is added to.
CounterIf earnings continue to beat and analysts raise price targets, the target-reached signal could be stale and the stock could keep climbing without ever offering the anticipated pullback entry.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 46%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -9% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $14.00 has reached target $13.80. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-8.9%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 14d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.32.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Growth at 8.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Sentiment at 5.4, and Momentum at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Vs Earnings
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.9x, or PEG exceeds 1.0 from the current 0.21.
- P2High Margin Compounder Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% from the current 46%, or the Piotroski F-Score drops to 5 or below from the current 9/9.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, dropping the beat rate below 50%.
- P4Bearish Momentum And Options Positioning
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for more than 4 weeks, or the put/call ratio rises above 3.5 from the current 2.79.
- P5Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside stays negative (below 0%) for more than 2 consecutive quarters without a pullback entry materializing.