Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
SBSI · Why this verdict
Why Southside Bancshares (SBSI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Southside Bancshares combines a bullish golden-cross breakout and a cheap valuation with two consecutive earnings misses, a dividend yield-trap warning, and a negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio, consistent with a call to consider reducing the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Southside Bancshares is in a golden cross above all major moving averages with bullish MACD and RSI of 58, a breakout setup on the technical read. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high with only 2.4% remaining, leaving little room for the breakout to extend before hitting resistance. | ||
Southside Bancshares has missed consensus EPS in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, a clear near-term execution concern. Earnings | The company should return to beating or meeting consensus in its next reported quarter on 2026-07-24. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank earnings misses are frequently driven by one-time provisioning or securities-portfolio marks rather than a deterioration in core banking operations. | ||
Southside carries a yield-trap warning, with a high dividend yield not fully backed by safe underlying earnings, alongside earnings concerns of 1 beat against 2 misses. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage should improve as earnings stabilize over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional banks often maintain dividends through short-term earnings softness by drawing on capital buffers, so a yield-trap flag does not necessarily mean a cut is imminent. | ||
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.2, with the analyst target already reached and -9.9% implied upside against 8.2% downside, explaining the reduce-position stance. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as either price consolidates or analyst targets are revised upward following improved earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA cheap forward P/E of 10.1x could attract fresh analyst target increases quickly if the next earnings report beats, flipping the asymmetry positive. | ||
Southside Bancshares is in a golden cross above all major moving averages with bullish MACD and RSI of 58, a breakout setup on the technical read.
↑ImprovingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high with only 2.4% remaining, leaving little room for the breakout to extend before hitting resistance.
Southside Bancshares has missed consensus EPS in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, a clear near-term execution concern.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to beating or meeting consensus in its next reported quarter on 2026-07-24.
CounterRegional bank earnings misses are frequently driven by one-time provisioning or securities-portfolio marks rather than a deterioration in core banking operations.
Southside carries a yield-trap warning, with a high dividend yield not fully backed by safe underlying earnings, alongside earnings concerns of 1 beat against 2 misses.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage should improve as earnings stabilize over the next two quarters.
CounterRegional banks often maintain dividends through short-term earnings softness by drawing on capital buffers, so a yield-trap flag does not necessarily mean a cut is imminent.
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.2, with the analyst target already reached and -9.9% implied upside against 8.2% downside, explaining the reduce-position stance.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as either price consolidates or analyst targets are revised upward following improved earnings.
CounterA cheap forward P/E of 10.1x could attract fresh analyst target increases quickly if the next earnings report beats, flipping the asymmetry positive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 72% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 91)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $13,284 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.06
Upside
-15.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Peer rank at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Catalyst at 4.7, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout
Trip ifPrice fails to close above the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifSouthside's EPS surprise falls below 0% for a third consecutive quarter.
- P3Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifThe dividend is cut by more than 20% within the next year.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Caps Add
Trip ifThe risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio stays below -1 for 2 consecutive quarters.