Value
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 50.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
S · Why this verdict
Why SentinelOne (S) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SentinelOne is a fast-growing (21% YoY) software company that is free-cash-flow positive despite GAAP losses and passes the Rule of 40, but the price is already 4.5% above the analyst target and earnings have repeatedly missed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 21% YoY, and growth scores 8.8/10 with earnings growth components at 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSoftware security competition is intense and growth is decelerating as the base grows, so a fall below 15% would remove the main support for a 52x forward P/E. | ||
The business is generating cash despite GAAP losses, with a free cash flow margin of 27% and a Rule of 40 score of 48. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays above 20% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 40 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is flattered by stock-based compensation and deferred revenue, and GAAP net and operating margins still score 0. | ||
The $24.00 price is 4.5% above the $22.92 analyst target, so analyst-implied upside is exhausted. Analyst target | Analysts raise targets above the current price as results come in. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price moves, so a price above the target may simply precede upward revisions rather than signal overvaluation. | ||
The earnings record is poor: no beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, averaging a -23.9% surprise on losses per share. Earnings | Quarterly losses per share narrow and come in at or better than estimates by the 2026-12-03 report. | →Stable |
| CounterWith GAAP losses near zero, small dollar differences produce very large percentage misses, which overstate the severity. | ||
The shares trade above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume, giving momentum of 6.3/10 in a range-bound setup. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI is mid-range at 43 and the Bollinger position is mid-band, so the range-bound pattern could break lower given heavy insider selling of $23.5M. | ||
Revenue is growing 21% YoY, and growth scores 8.8/10 with earnings growth components at 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterSoftware security competition is intense and growth is decelerating as the base grows, so a fall below 15% would remove the main support for a 52x forward P/E.
The business is generating cash despite GAAP losses, with a free cash flow margin of 27% and a Rule of 40 score of 48.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays above 20% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 40 over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is flattered by stock-based compensation and deferred revenue, and GAAP net and operating margins still score 0.
The $24.00 price is 4.5% above the $22.92 analyst target, so analyst-implied upside is exhausted.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as results come in.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price moves, so a price above the target may simply precede upward revisions rather than signal overvaluation.
The earnings record is poor: no beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, averaging a -23.9% surprise on losses per share.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly losses per share narrow and come in at or better than estimates by the 2026-12-03 report.
CounterWith GAAP losses near zero, small dollar differences produce very large percentage misses, which overstate the severity.
The shares trade above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume, giving momentum of 6.3/10 in a range-bound setup.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI is mid-range at 43 and the Bollinger position is mid-band, so the range-bound pattern could break lower given heavy insider selling of $23.5M.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 8.9 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 27%, FCF yield 3.7%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 48 (pass)
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $22,211,068 (0.276% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Above max pain $14
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.28%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.07
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.07 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Technical at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.7, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fcf Positive Rule Of 40
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 15% from the current 27%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY from the current 21%.
- P3Analyst Target Exceeded
Trip ifThe analyst target rises above $27 from the current $22.92.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Uptrend With Accumulation
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.3.