Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
RVTY · Why this verdict
Why Revvity (RVTY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 4.8%, demonstrating consistent ability to deliver at or above the guidance range set for diagnostics and research instrumentation. Earnings | Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprises of only 4.8% in a diagnostics business may reflect analyst conservatism that reverses if revenue growth remains low; the weak growth rate of revenue and earnings creates limited room for sustained outperformance. | ||
Free cash flow conversion runs at 212% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, indicating exceptional financial health and a business that generates far more cash than reported book earnings across all profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in a low-growth diagnostics business may reflect capital underinvestment that eventually weighs on competitive positioning; sustained 212% conversion may not be reproducible indefinitely without reinvestment. | ||
Revenue and earnings growth are weak, with the stock trading at or above the analyst consensus take-profit target of $104 from the current $100.55, leaving negative 1.7% upside to consensus and a risk/reward ratio of only 0.5. Bear case | Analyst consensus price target rises above $115 within 12 months as earnings consistency and cash flow quality attract target price increases from analysts covering the diagnostics sector. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a forward price-to-earnings of 17.3 times in a low-growth business and only small positive earnings surprises, analysts have limited justification to raise targets unless revenue growth meaningfully accelerates from current low single-digit rates. | ||
Short interest of 12% combined with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 5.1 creates a mixed signal, where accumulation is visible but a meaningful short position suggests some investors are positioned for a decline from current levels. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% within 12 months as the earnings consistency reduces the short thesis and forces covering. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest in a low-growth healthcare company near its analyst target often reflects thesis-driven positioning where investors have calculated the expected returns are negative at current prices, making the short position rational rather than contrarian. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 4.8%, demonstrating consistent ability to deliver at or above the guidance range set for diagnostics and research instrumentation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record.
CounterAverage surprises of only 4.8% in a diagnostics business may reflect analyst conservatism that reverses if revenue growth remains low; the weak growth rate of revenue and earnings creates limited room for sustained outperformance.
Free cash flow conversion runs at 212% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, indicating exceptional financial health and a business that generates far more cash than reported book earnings across all profitability, leverage, and efficiency dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in a low-growth diagnostics business may reflect capital underinvestment that eventually weighs on competitive positioning; sustained 212% conversion may not be reproducible indefinitely without reinvestment.
Revenue and earnings growth are weak, with the stock trading at or above the analyst consensus take-profit target of $104 from the current $100.55, leaving negative 1.7% upside to consensus and a risk/reward ratio of only 0.5.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $115 within 12 months as earnings consistency and cash flow quality attract target price increases from analysts covering the diagnostics sector.
CounterWith a forward price-to-earnings of 17.3 times in a low-growth business and only small positive earnings surprises, analysts have limited justification to raise targets unless revenue growth meaningfully accelerates from current low single-digit rates.
Short interest of 12% combined with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 5.1 creates a mixed signal, where accumulation is visible but a meaningful short position suggests some investors are positioned for a decline from current levels.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% within 12 months as the earnings consistency reduces the short thesis and forces covering.
CounterShort interest in a low-growth healthcare company near its analyst target often reflects thesis-driven positioning where investors have calculated the expected returns are negative at current prices, making the short position rational rather than contrarian.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revvity has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 212% of net income with a perfect 9 out of 9 Piotroski score, but with only negative 1.7% upside remaining to the analyst target and 12% short interest, the stock appears fairly priced with downside risk exceeding near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 212% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $7,424 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $90
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 25.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.67
Upside
-10.0%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.67 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.9, Catalyst at 6.2, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.0, Growth at 3.5, and Technical at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100%, more than 112 percentage points below the current 212% level.
- P3Weak Growth At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $90, more than 10% below the current stock price of $100.55, indicating downward revision pressure.
- P4Short Interest And Momentum Pressure
Trip ifShort interest rises above 16% of float, more than 4 percentage points above the current 12%, indicating increased bearish conviction.