Value
9.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
RVT · Why this verdict
Why Royce Value Trust (RVT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The fund trades at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, which is extremely low and indicates the market is paying very little for each unit of growth, representing one of the most attractively valued situations in the financial services peer group. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio remains below 0.5 over the next 12 months, sustaining the deep value pricing relative to the fund's earnings growth trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterClosed-end fund PEG ratios are structurally influenced by NAV discount dynamics rather than traditional earnings growth; the low PEG may reflect the fund's discount to net asset value rather than genuine earnings power underpricing. | ||
The fund ranks in the top category for margins relative to peers and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating strong balance sheet health and profitability metrics relative to other asset management vehicles. Peer-rank breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and margin ranking stays in the top quartile of peers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is nearly negative 3% relative to net income, which is flagged as a red flag, suggesting the fund distributes more than it earns from portfolio income, raising sustainability questions about the current dividend level. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a price trading above the 200-day moving average, and a momentum score of 6.7 indicate that investors are accumulating shares at current levels, supporting the view that the valuation discount is attracting buyers. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend remains positive and price holds above the 200-day moving average over the next 6 months, confirming continued accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterWith virtually zero upside to near-term resistance at $18.14 from the current $18.11, and the fund near a 52-week high, momentum may have already priced in the near-term catalyst and the next move could be a pullback. | ||
The fund's dividend yield is flagged as potentially unsustainable relative to income generation, with free cash flow deeply negative relative to earnings, suggesting the distribution may not be fully covered by portfolio income over time. Catalyst breakdown | The fund maintains its current dividend level without a distribution cut over the next 12 months, sustaining income for shareholders. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative free cash flow to net income ratio combined with a yield trap warning indicates the fund may be returning capital rather than income, which gradually erodes net asset value and is unsustainable indefinitely. | ||
The fund trades at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, which is extremely low and indicates the market is paying very little for each unit of growth, representing one of the most attractively valued situations in the financial services peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio remains below 0.5 over the next 12 months, sustaining the deep value pricing relative to the fund's earnings growth trajectory.
CounterClosed-end fund PEG ratios are structurally influenced by NAV discount dynamics rather than traditional earnings growth; the low PEG may reflect the fund's discount to net asset value rather than genuine earnings power underpricing.
The fund ranks in the top category for margins relative to peers and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, indicating strong balance sheet health and profitability metrics relative to other asset management vehicles.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and margin ranking stays in the top quartile of peers over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is nearly negative 3% relative to net income, which is flagged as a red flag, suggesting the fund distributes more than it earns from portfolio income, raising sustainability questions about the current dividend level.
Rising on-balance volume, a price trading above the 200-day moving average, and a momentum score of 6.7 indicate that investors are accumulating shares at current levels, supporting the view that the valuation discount is attracting buyers.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend remains positive and price holds above the 200-day moving average over the next 6 months, confirming continued accumulation.
CounterWith virtually zero upside to near-term resistance at $18.14 from the current $18.11, and the fund near a 52-week high, momentum may have already priced in the near-term catalyst and the next move could be a pullback.
The fund's dividend yield is flagged as potentially unsustainable relative to income generation, with free cash flow deeply negative relative to earnings, suggesting the distribution may not be fully covered by portfolio income over time.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The fund maintains its current dividend level without a distribution cut over the next 12 months, sustaining income for shareholders.
CounterA negative free cash flow to net income ratio combined with a yield trap warning indicates the fund may be returning capital rather than income, which gradually erodes net asset value and is unsustainable indefinitely.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Royce Value Trust is a small-cap value closed-end fund trading at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of just 0.13, with peer-leading margins and best-in-class value scores, but near its 52-week high with virtually no near-term upside to resistance and a yield that is flagged as potentially unsustainable relative to income.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -3% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -17 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $50,848 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| beta | 6.1 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.9; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, and Growth at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Catalyst at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Peg Ratio Valuation
Trip ifThe fund's net asset value discount widens to more than 20%, more than double any typical discount level, indicating the low PEG reflects deteriorating underlying portfolio rather than a value opportunity.
- P2Peer Leading Margins And Quality
Trip ifPiotroski score drops below 6, more than 2 points below the current 8 out of 9, indicating a material deterioration in financial health metrics.
- P3Strong Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifPrice falls below $16.50, more than 9% below the current $18.11, and on-balance volume trend turns negative, indicating accumulated positions are being unwound.
- P4Yield Sustainability And Income Risk
Trip ifThe fund announces a dividend reduction of more than 15%, below the current distribution level, confirming that income coverage is insufficient to sustain the payout.