Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.15
- ▸Attractively valued
RRC · Why this verdict
Why Range Resources (RRC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 26% year over year with strong earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 17.3% EPS surprise in the most recent quarter, reflecting disciplined Appalachian production execution. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate remains above 15% year over year and earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterNatural gas prices are notoriously cyclical, and a sustained commodity price decline would compress realized prices regardless of operational execution, as over 65% of revenue derives from natural gas. | ||
The company is rated as having a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong operating margins of 28%, and returns that qualify it as a compounder-quality business within the energy sector. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion at 61% of net income is below typical high-quality energy operators, and an elevated debt-to-equity ratio adds financial risk if commodity prices fall. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1.14, placing it among the more attractively priced natural gas producers relative to its growth rate. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12 times over the next 12 months, sustaining the relative value proposition against energy sector peers. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst upside of 26% is based on consensus targets that themselves assume stable or rising natural gas prices; a meaningful gas price decline would cause downward earnings revisions and compress the target price. | ||
With short interest at 11% of float and price momentum failing to clear the minimum threshold, the market is expressing meaningful skepticism about near-term upside despite the constructive fundamental picture. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as the fundamental thesis gains recognition and price momentum turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with falling on-balance volume and a below-200-day-moving-average price position may signal informed selling, with the Pennsylvania geographic concentration amplifying downside if regional infrastructure or regulatory conditions deteriorate. | ||
Revenue grew 26% year over year with strong earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 17.3% EPS surprise in the most recent quarter, reflecting disciplined Appalachian production execution.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate remains above 15% year over year and earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterNatural gas prices are notoriously cyclical, and a sustained commodity price decline would compress realized prices regardless of operational execution, as over 65% of revenue derives from natural gas.
The company is rated as having a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong operating margins of 28%, and returns that qualify it as a compounder-quality business within the energy sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow conversion at 61% of net income is below typical high-quality energy operators, and an elevated debt-to-equity ratio adds financial risk if commodity prices fall.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1.14, placing it among the more attractively priced natural gas producers relative to its growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12 times over the next 12 months, sustaining the relative value proposition against energy sector peers.
CounterThe analyst upside of 26% is based on consensus targets that themselves assume stable or rising natural gas prices; a meaningful gas price decline would cause downward earnings revisions and compress the target price.
With short interest at 11% of float and price momentum failing to clear the minimum threshold, the market is expressing meaningful skepticism about near-term upside despite the constructive fundamental picture.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as the fundamental thesis gains recognition and price momentum turns positive.
CounterHigh short interest combined with falling on-balance volume and a below-200-day-moving-average price position may signal informed selling, with the Pennsylvania geographic concentration amplifying downside if regional infrastructure or regulatory conditions deteriorate.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Range Resources offers an attractively valued natural gas producer with wide economic moat, strong earnings execution, and 26% revenue growth, though heavy commodity and geographic concentration in Pennsylvania natural gas creates binary risk that muted price momentum reflects.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.2 |
| FCF quality | 4.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 61% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 6.4 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $310,832 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 2.2 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 106.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.06
Upside
+10.9%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.5; weakest: Peer rank at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Value at 7.8, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.9, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Natural Gas Revenue Growth Execution
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 10% year over year in at least 2 consecutive quarters, indicating a meaningful deceleration from the current 26% pace.
- P2Wide Economic Moat Quality
Trip ifNet margin drops below 15%, more than 10 percentage points below the current 28% level, signaling margin compression from commodity price or cost pressures.
- P3Attractive Valuation Versus Peers
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 15 times due to earnings estimate cuts, erasing the valuation discount versus peers.
- P4Short Interest And Momentum Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% of float, indicating increased bearish conviction beyond the already elevated 11% current level.