Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
ROG · Why this verdict
Why Rogers (ROG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Foreign markets account for 72% of Rogers Corporation's revenue, creating significant exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical trade restrictions, and demand variability in key markets including China and Europe where EV adoption rates and electronics manufacturing activity drive orders. Bear case | North American revenue grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue within 12 months as domestic EV manufacturing investment from the Inflation Reduction Act creates new demand close to home. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh international revenue exposure is a structural feature of advanced materials companies serving global electronics and automotive supply chains; Rogers cannot selectively serve only domestic customers without losing competitive position. | ||
Rogers shows a strong golden cross breakout with a momentum score of 8.3 out of 10, above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and a recent positive analyst news catalyst, reflecting improving institutional confidence in the company's EV and 5G materials revenue ramp. V9 | Price sustains above all major moving averages for at least 6 months and volume accumulation continues, confirming institutional buying rather than a temporary technical move. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterBreakout momentum in small-cap industrial materials companies is frequently driven by sector rotation into EV-adjacent themes rather than company-specific fundamental improvement, making it vulnerable to reversal when sentiment shifts. | ||
The current price of $154.93 is approximately 17.7% above analyst consensus targets, meaning buyers at current prices are paying a premium above what analysts believe the fair value is today, creating negative downside asymmetry even after the recent breakout momentum. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward above $180 within 12 months following a major new design win in advanced electric vehicle power electronics or 5G infrastructure materials. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum in specialty materials companies often precedes analyst target upgrades by 2 to 3 quarters; the current premium to targets may represent market efficiency pricing in forthcoming revisions that have not yet been formalized. | ||
Rogers relies on sole and limited source suppliers for critical inputs, creating a supply chain vulnerability where any disruption to a single supplier could halt production of high-value advanced materials with long qualification cycles and limited substitution options. Bear case | The company qualifies at least one alternative source for its two highest-risk sole-source inputs within 12 months, reducing the single-point-of-failure risk in the supply chain. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSole-source supplier relationships in advanced specialty materials are normal where only one or two global producers can meet the precise specifications required; the risk is priced into the business model rather than a new exposure. | ||
Foreign markets account for 72% of Rogers Corporation's revenue, creating significant exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical trade restrictions, and demand variability in key markets including China and Europe where EV adoption rates and electronics manufacturing activity drive orders.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- North American revenue grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue within 12 months as domestic EV manufacturing investment from the Inflation Reduction Act creates new demand close to home.
CounterHigh international revenue exposure is a structural feature of advanced materials companies serving global electronics and automotive supply chains; Rogers cannot selectively serve only domestic customers without losing competitive position.
Rogers shows a strong golden cross breakout with a momentum score of 8.3 out of 10, above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and a recent positive analyst news catalyst, reflecting improving institutional confidence in the company's EV and 5G materials revenue ramp.
Tripped↑ImprovingV9
- Expectation
- Price sustains above all major moving averages for at least 6 months and volume accumulation continues, confirming institutional buying rather than a temporary technical move.
CounterBreakout momentum in small-cap industrial materials companies is frequently driven by sector rotation into EV-adjacent themes rather than company-specific fundamental improvement, making it vulnerable to reversal when sentiment shifts.
The current price of $154.93 is approximately 17.7% above analyst consensus targets, meaning buyers at current prices are paying a premium above what analysts believe the fair value is today, creating negative downside asymmetry even after the recent breakout momentum.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward above $180 within 12 months following a major new design win in advanced electric vehicle power electronics or 5G infrastructure materials.
CounterStrong momentum in specialty materials companies often precedes analyst target upgrades by 2 to 3 quarters; the current premium to targets may represent market efficiency pricing in forthcoming revisions that have not yet been formalized.
Rogers relies on sole and limited source suppliers for critical inputs, creating a supply chain vulnerability where any disruption to a single supplier could halt production of high-value advanced materials with long qualification cycles and limited substitution options.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The company qualifies at least one alternative source for its two highest-risk sole-source inputs within 12 months, reducing the single-point-of-failure risk in the supply chain.
CounterSole-source supplier relationships in advanced specialty materials are normal where only one or two global producers can meet the precise specifications required; the risk is priced into the business model rather than a new exposure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 227% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 6.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.1 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.83
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:103d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.19
Upside
+45.7%
Downside
14.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.7, Growth at 7.4, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Insider at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Geographic Concentration Foreign Revenue
Trip ifRevenue from any single international market falls more than 20% year-over-year, indicating geographic concentration is creating realized downside rather than just theoretical risk.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice rises above $175, more than 13% above the current $154.93, while analyst targets remain below $160, widening the premium to fair value beyond 10%.
- P3Sole Source Supplier Dependency
Trip ifAny supply disruption results in a revenue shortfall exceeding $15 million in a single quarter, demonstrating that sole-source dependency has materially impacted financial results.
- P4Strong Breakout Momentum VolumeTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $138, more than 11% below the current $154.93, breaking below the golden cross breakout level and signaling the technical setup has failed.