Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
RNGR · Why this verdict
Why Ranger Energy Services (RNGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ranger Energy Services shows a bullish technical breakout with strong growth, but an earnings-quality red flag, a persistent earnings-miss pattern, and an explicit yield-trap warning on its dividend keep the fundamental risk/reward negative despite the chart setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The catalyst notes explicitly flag a yield-trap warning — Ranger Energy's dividend yield is elevated but assessed as unsafe. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend-safety component should improve, or the company should maintain the payout without a cut, over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single quantitative yield-trap flag can be a false positive if the underlying free cash flow (even with the current -47% FCF/NI red flag) still covers the payout on a cash basis. | ||
Ranger Energy shows a technical breakout setup — a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI 68, and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its key moving averages (200-day MA) and sustain the breakout setup classification over the next 1-2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe V9 panel flags a negative asymmetry ratio (-0.6) at the current price, meaning the risk/reward on a breakout entry is unfavorable despite the bullish chart pattern. | ||
Ranger Energy's earnings quality carries a red flag — free cash flow is running at -47% of net income — even as the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signals strong fundamental health elsewhere. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should turn positive over the next 12 months to resolve the earnings-quality red flag. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA strong 8/9 Piotroski score suggests the underlying balance sheet and profitability trends are healthy, and the FCF/NI gap could be a temporary working-capital or capex timing effect. | ||
Ranger Energy has missed consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -22.29%, a track record that undercuts the bullish technical setup. Avg surprise pct | The beat count should rise to at least 2 of the trailing 4 quarters over the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOilfield services earnings are highly sensitive to rig-count and commodity-price swings outside company control, so misses don't necessarily reflect operational deterioration. | ||
The catalyst notes explicitly flag a yield-trap warning — Ranger Energy's dividend yield is elevated but assessed as unsafe.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend-safety component should improve, or the company should maintain the payout without a cut, over the next 12 months.
CounterA single quantitative yield-trap flag can be a false positive if the underlying free cash flow (even with the current -47% FCF/NI red flag) still covers the payout on a cash basis.
Ranger Energy shows a technical breakout setup — a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI 68, and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its key moving averages (200-day MA) and sustain the breakout setup classification over the next 1-2 quarters.
CounterThe V9 panel flags a negative asymmetry ratio (-0.6) at the current price, meaning the risk/reward on a breakout entry is unfavorable despite the bullish chart pattern.
Ranger Energy's earnings quality carries a red flag — free cash flow is running at -47% of net income — even as the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signals strong fundamental health elsewhere.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should turn positive over the next 12 months to resolve the earnings-quality red flag.
CounterA strong 8/9 Piotroski score suggests the underlying balance sheet and profitability trends are healthy, and the FCF/NI gap could be a temporary working-capital or capex timing effect.
Ranger Energy has missed consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -22.29%, a track record that undercuts the bullish technical setup.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The beat count should rise to at least 2 of the trailing 4 quarters over the next year.
CounterOilfield services earnings are highly sensitive to rig-count and commodity-price swings outside company control, so misses don't necessarily reflect operational deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -47% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 2.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $251,981 (0.064% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.7 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $396M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:61d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.1<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of -0.81.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Value at 7.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.9, Quality at 3.2, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 consecutive trading days, breaking the current above-all-MAs breakout setup.
- P2Earnings Quality Red FlagTripped
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio compresses below -70% from the current -47%.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifBeat count stays below 2 of the trailing 4 reported quarters after the next two earnings reports.
- P4Yield Trap Dividend Risk
Trip ifThe company cuts its dividend payout by more than 25%, confirming the yield-trap warning.