Value
5.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.4x
RMIX · Why this verdict
Why Suncrete (RMIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suncrete is a deeply drawn-down building-materials name (59% off its high) with explosive revenue growth and 86.3% upside to the analyst target, but quality is poor, profitability is negative and the business has no moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $10.51 is 86.3% below the analyst target of $19.57, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.75 against 15.0% downside. Analyst target | Price should move toward the $19.57 target if profitability improves over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets for a small speculative name with weak quality may be stale or optimistic, and the position is rated AVOID. | ||
Revenue is growing 146% YoY, with the latest quarter at $97.2M versus $39.5M a year earlier, and the next-quarter estimate is $147.4M. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach roughly the $147M estimate and stay above $100M over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and revenue data is mixed with provisional sources, including a $0 quarter, so the growth figure may be distorted by acquisitions or data gaps. | ||
Quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin all scoring 0, no competitive moat and quality concerns noted. Quality breakdown | Operating and net margins should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business remains unprofitable and quality may stay weak while it scales, which would keep institutions away. | ||
The setup is a recovery from a 59% drawdown: a death cross with improving MACD, RSI of 44 and rising on-balance volume as institutions accumulate. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and RSI should rise above 50. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is still below the 200-day average with a flat slope, and the 52-week position is at the bottom of its range. | ||
Earnings are due in 12 days after a beat where the loss was narrower than expected (-$0.01 vs -$0.02), a 55.5% surprise. Next earnings date | EPS should come in at or above the estimate and move toward breakeven. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat is on a near-zero base with a single quarter of history, so it is weak evidence of a reliable beat pattern. | ||
The price of $10.51 is 86.3% below the analyst target of $19.57, giving a reward-to-risk of 5.75 against 15.0% downside.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $19.57 target if profitability improves over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets for a small speculative name with weak quality may be stale or optimistic, and the position is rated AVOID.
Revenue is growing 146% YoY, with the latest quarter at $97.2M versus $39.5M a year earlier, and the next-quarter estimate is $147.4M.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach roughly the $147M estimate and stay above $100M over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and revenue data is mixed with provisional sources, including a $0 quarter, so the growth figure may be distorted by acquisitions or data gaps.
Quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin all scoring 0, no competitive moat and quality concerns noted.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating and net margins should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0.
CounterThe business remains unprofitable and quality may stay weak while it scales, which would keep institutions away.
The setup is a recovery from a 59% drawdown: a death cross with improving MACD, RSI of 44 and rising on-balance volume as institutions accumulate.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and RSI should rise above 50.
CounterThe stock is still below the 200-day average with a flat slope, and the 52-week position is at the bottom of its range.
Earnings are due in 12 days after a beat where the loss was narrower than expected (-$0.01 vs -$0.02), a 55.5% surprise.
→StableNext earnings date
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above the estimate and move toward breakeven.
CounterThe beat is on a near-zero base with a single quarter of history, so it is weak evidence of a reliable beat pattern.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 146% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 105%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.23
Upside
+78.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.23.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Technical at 2.7, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $80M in the next report.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target is cut below $14 from the current $19.57.
- P3Poor Quality No Moat
Trip ifNet margin stays below 0% for 4 more quarters.
- P4Recovery Setup After Drawdown
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $9.77 stop level.
- P5Earnings Catalyst Near Term
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-13 report.