Value
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
RJET · Why this verdict
Why Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Republic Airways combines strong revenue growth (34% YoY) and cheap valuation with weak earnings quality (31% FCF/NI), supplier concentration in Embraer and GE Aviation, and almost no remaining upside to resistance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 34% YoY, scoring 10/10 on growth and making the company an industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because few data points exist, and a growth spurt in a regional airline can reverse with contract or fleet changes. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag at 31% FCF/NI and the quality score of 3.9 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF/net income should recover above 80% and the quality score should rise above 4.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests the underlying financial trend is improving, so low cash conversion may be temporary fleet-investment spending. | ||
Concentration risk with two HIGH and two MED items, including dependence on Embraer and GE Aviation as suppliers, exposes operations to supplier disruption. Bear case | No supply disruption should reduce flying capacity over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAircraft and engine suppliers are few across the industry, so this concentration is shared by peers and may be priced in. | ||
A PEG of 0.04 and strong price-to-sales score make the stock attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Valuation should stay cheap, with the PEG below 0.5, as earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCheap multiples on a low-moat airline with weak cash conversion may simply reflect cyclical earnings peaks. | ||
Take-profit sits at resistance of $20.20 versus a $19.32 price, with upside of only 4.6% against 7.0% to the stop, so reward does not exceed risk. Gates warning | Price should break above $20.20 resistance with rising volume to reopen upside. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum is strong at 7.1/10 with rising on-balance volume, so resistance could break and trend continue. | ||
Revenue is growing 34% YoY, scoring 10/10 on growth and making the company an industry growth leader among peers.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because few data points exist, and a growth spurt in a regional airline can reverse with contract or fleet changes.
Earnings quality is a red flag at 31% FCF/NI and the quality score of 3.9 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/net income should recover above 80% and the quality score should rise above 4.0.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests the underlying financial trend is improving, so low cash conversion may be temporary fleet-investment spending.
Concentration risk with two HIGH and two MED items, including dependence on Embraer and GE Aviation as suppliers, exposes operations to supplier disruption.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption should reduce flying capacity over the next 12 months.
CounterAircraft and engine suppliers are few across the industry, so this concentration is shared by peers and may be priced in.
A PEG of 0.04 and strong price-to-sales score make the stock attractively valued relative to its growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation should stay cheap, with the PEG below 0.5, as earnings grow.
CounterCheap multiples on a low-moat airline with weak cash conversion may simply reflect cyclical earnings peaks.
Take-profit sits at resistance of $20.20 versus a $19.32 price, with upside of only 4.6% against 7.0% to the stop, so reward does not exceed risk.
↑ImprovingGates warning
- Expectation
- Price should break above $20.20 resistance with rising volume to reopen upside.
CounterMomentum is strong at 7.1/10 with rising on-balance volume, so resistance could break and trend continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (2.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+4.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.7, and Momentum at 8.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, and Quality at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Weak Earnings Quality
Trip ifFCF/net income stays below 40% for 2 more quarters.
- P3Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifAny single supplier delay cuts flying capacity by more than 5% in a quarter.
- P4Cheap Valuation Peg
Trip ifPEG exceeds 1.0 from the current 0.04.
- P5Upside Exhausted At Resistance
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $17.97 stop level.