Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
RCBC · Why this verdict
Why RIVER CITY BANK (RCBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
River City Bank is a fast-growing, high-margin regional bank (40% YoY growth, 52% margins), but the price of $57.99 has moved 14.3% above the analyst target, leaving little room for further upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 40% YoY with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10/10, placing it among the faster growers in regional banking. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth should remain well above 15% YoY over the next 12 months, toward the $40.7M next-quarter revenue estimate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth of 40% may be driven by a small base or one-off items and tends to mean-revert for a regional bank. | ||
Margins of 52% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 show high profitability versus peers, with superior ROE and best-in-class margins in the peer ranking. Quality breakdown | Net margin should stay above 40% and the Piotroski score should stay at 7 or higher. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterROA is only 1.0/10 and margins on a small bank may not be durable if funding costs rise or credit quality weakens. | ||
Forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG of 0.19 indicate the stock is attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below roughly 14x as earnings grow, supporting the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe peer value rank is just 2.7/10, so peers are cheaper, and the price is already above the analyst target. | ||
The price of $57.99 is above the $49.73 analyst target, with upside of -14.3% (price is 14.3% above the target), so the stock offers limited further upside from here. Bear case | Analyst targets should be revised up toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag fast earnings growth, so the stock could keep rising past the target. | ||
The stock is within 2.1% of its 52-week high with rising on-balance volume and a strong MACD, showing accumulation, with momentum at 6.5/10. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the stop level near $54.81 and stay close to its 52-week high. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNear-high prices with the target already reached raise the risk of a pullback of about 9.4% to the stop level. | ||
Growth is strong at 40% YoY with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10/10, placing it among the faster growers in regional banking.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should remain well above 15% YoY over the next 12 months, toward the $40.7M next-quarter revenue estimate.
CounterGrowth of 40% may be driven by a small base or one-off items and tends to mean-revert for a regional bank.
Margins of 52% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 show high profitability versus peers, with superior ROE and best-in-class margins in the peer ranking.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should stay above 40% and the Piotroski score should stay at 7 or higher.
CounterROA is only 1.0/10 and margins on a small bank may not be durable if funding costs rise or credit quality weakens.
Forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG of 0.19 indicate the stock is attractively valued relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below roughly 14x as earnings grow, supporting the current price.
CounterThe peer value rank is just 2.7/10, so peers are cheaper, and the price is already above the analyst target.
The price of $57.99 is above the $49.73 analyst target, with upside of -14.3% (price is 14.3% above the target), so the stock offers limited further upside from here.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be revised up toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag fast earnings growth, so the stock could keep rising past the target.
The stock is within 2.1% of its 52-week high with rising on-balance volume and a strong MACD, showing accumulation, with momentum at 6.5/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the stop level near $54.81 and stay close to its 52-week high.
CounterNear-high prices with the target already reached raise the risk of a pullback of about 9.4% to the stop level.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 52%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 40% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 7.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.19
Upside
-15.5%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% from the current 52%.
- P3Attractive Valuation Vs Earnings
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from the current 11.2x.
- P4Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice falls more than 20% below the current $57.99 as the target gap closes.
- P5Near 52 Week High Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops to below $54.81 on a closing basis.