Value
5.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
RAL · Why this verdict
Why Ralliant (RAL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ralliant Corporation is an electronic components company with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a strong 3-for-3 earnings beat streak, and positive momentum above its 200-day moving average, but the stock has exceeded analyst targets with -1.9% negative upside, dual geographic and supplier concentration risks, and a below-average quality score of 4.7 out of 10.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
As disclosed in the 10-K risk factors, the company faces both geographic concentration in the United States and single-supplier concentration for key components, creating two independent pathways through which external disruptions could impair operations simultaneously. Bear case | The company announces at least 1 alternative supplier qualification for key components within the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterUS geographic concentration is a shared characteristic of many electronic components companies, and supply chain risks are most acute in periods of global disruption; in stable conditions, single-source relationships often provide reliability advantages. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates Ralliant passes every financial health test across profitability, leverage, and liquidity, providing a strong foundation that is unusual for a company with a below-average quality score, suggesting the quality discount reflects valuation rather than financial fragility. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next two reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score alongside a below-average quality composite of 4.7 suggests the score captures backward-looking financial health but may not reflect forward earnings power given the concentration risks and declining analyst sentiment. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all three of the last three reported quarters, averaging a 9.2% positive surprise including an 18.8% beat in August 2025, demonstrating consistent outperformance of guidance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 5%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average absolute earnings level is modest (approximately $0.65 per share), and the beats occurred during a period of rising momentum; if the price declines from current overbought levels, the fundamental beats may not prevent further price weakness. | ||
At $68.77, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $67.48, producing negative upside of -1.9% and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.28, which means new buyers are entering at a price already above where analysts see fair value. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $75 following continued earnings beats and growth confirmation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong momentum above the 200-day moving average and continued volume accumulation may attract further price appreciation regardless of near-term target levels, particularly if the growth score of 7.6 continues to accelerate. | ||
As disclosed in the 10-K risk factors, the company faces both geographic concentration in the United States and single-supplier concentration for key components, creating two independent pathways through which external disruptions could impair operations simultaneously.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The company announces at least 1 alternative supplier qualification for key components within the next 12 months.
CounterUS geographic concentration is a shared characteristic of many electronic components companies, and supply chain risks are most acute in periods of global disruption; in stable conditions, single-source relationships often provide reliability advantages.
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates Ralliant passes every financial health test across profitability, leverage, and liquidity, providing a strong foundation that is unusual for a company with a below-average quality score, suggesting the quality discount reflects valuation rather than financial fragility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next two reporting periods.
CounterA strong Piotroski score alongside a below-average quality composite of 4.7 suggests the score captures backward-looking financial health but may not reflect forward earnings power given the concentration risks and declining analyst sentiment.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all three of the last three reported quarters, averaging a 9.2% positive surprise including an 18.8% beat in August 2025, demonstrating consistent outperformance of guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterThe average absolute earnings level is modest (approximately $0.65 per share), and the beats occurred during a period of rising momentum; if the price declines from current overbought levels, the fundamental beats may not prevent further price weakness.
At $68.77, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $67.48, producing negative upside of -1.9% and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.28, which means new buyers are entering at a price already above where analysts see fair value.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $75 following continued earnings beats and growth confirmation.
CounterStrong momentum above the 200-day moving average and continued volume accumulation may attract further price appreciation regardless of near-term target levels, particularly if the growth score of 7.6 continues to accelerate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 14%, FCF yield 3.7%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,689,502 (0.021% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $50
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.55
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.6; weakest: Peer rank at 2.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Insider at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Quality at 4.7, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported period.
- P2Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Stock Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $60, more than 12% below current price.
- P4Dual Concentration Risks
Trip ifA key supplier disruption causes revenue to decline by more than 10% in any reported quarter.