Value
9.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
QUAD · Why this verdict
Why Quad Graphics (QUAD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Quad Graphics screens as deeply cheap (forward P/E 4.8x, 317% FCF/NI) but sits below the $400M market-cap floor with weak momentum and no moat, so the value case depends on cash conversion holding while revenue stabilizes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 317% of net income, showing earnings understate cash generation despite thin net margins. Quality breakdown | FCF/net income should remain well above 100% and support the 5.6% dividend over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh FCF/NI on tiny net income can reflect working-capital release or depreciation that is not repeatable, and the business has no competitive moat. | ||
Quad trades at a forward P/E of 4.8x and a PEG of 0.34, so the stock is attractively valued, with the price 55.4% below the analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Multiples should re-rate toward the analyst target of $11.19 from the $7.20 price if earnings hold over ~12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLow multiples may reflect a structurally declining print business with no moat, making it a value trap rather than a bargain. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $586.7M for the latest quarter is roughly flat versus $588.0M a year earlier, suggesting the multi-year decline from $674.8M two years ago is flattening. Revenue quarters | Year-over-year quarterly revenue should hold near flat to slightly positive, toward the $618M next-quarter estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth is scored only 2.5/10 with declining revenue noted, and the latest quarter missed EPS estimates by 7.9%. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.1/10 with RSI at 25 and a volume surge of 2.6x on the selloff, indicating capitulation that could precede a bounce but is not yet confirmed. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average within 12 months for the bounce to be valid. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution, and the stock sits below its 200-day average, so selling pressure could persist. | ||
Market cap of $367M is below the $400M minimum, leaving the stock outside the investable universe and limiting institutional reach. Bear case | Market cap should climb above $400M for the stock to become investable. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSmall size and light analyst coverage dampen signals and keep institutions out, so the discount may persist indefinitely. | ||
Free cash flow is 317% of net income, showing earnings understate cash generation despite thin net margins.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/net income should remain well above 100% and support the 5.6% dividend over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh FCF/NI on tiny net income can reflect working-capital release or depreciation that is not repeatable, and the business has no competitive moat.
Quad trades at a forward P/E of 4.8x and a PEG of 0.34, so the stock is attractively valued, with the price 55.4% below the analyst target.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Multiples should re-rate toward the analyst target of $11.19 from the $7.20 price if earnings hold over ~12 months.
CounterLow multiples may reflect a structurally declining print business with no moat, making it a value trap rather than a bargain.
Quarterly revenue of $586.7M for the latest quarter is roughly flat versus $588.0M a year earlier, suggesting the multi-year decline from $674.8M two years ago is flattening.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Year-over-year quarterly revenue should hold near flat to slightly positive, toward the $618M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue growth is scored only 2.5/10 with declining revenue noted, and the latest quarter missed EPS estimates by 7.9%.
Momentum is weak at 3.1/10 with RSI at 25 and a volume surge of 2.6x on the selloff, indicating capitulation that could precede a bounce but is not yet confirmed.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average within 12 months for the bounce to be valid.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution, and the stock sits below its 200-day average, so selling pressure could persist.
Market cap of $367M is below the $400M minimum, leaving the stock outside the investable universe and limiting institutional reach.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Market cap should climb above $400M for the stock to become investable.
CounterSmall size and light analyst coverage dampen signals and keep institutions out, so the discount may persist indefinitely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 317% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
- ▸Volume surge (2.6x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 0.7 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 5.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $367M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.22
Upside
+41.7%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 28, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of 3.22.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Technical at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.2, Momentum at 4.2, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 8x without a matching rise in earnings estimates.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Revenue Decline Stabilizing
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $550M in any quarter.
- P4Oversold Momentum Weak
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $6.95 stop level with RSI staying below 30.
- P5Small Cap Universe Exclusion
Trip ifMarket cap stays below $300M for 2 consecutive quarters.