Value
6.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
- ▸PEG: 2.11
QMCO · Why this verdict
Why Quantum (QMCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Quantum Corporation shows a favorable reward-to-risk setup near 2.5-to-1 and a growth read of 27% year-over-year revenue expansion, but that growth figure directly conflicts with value-trap signals elsewhere citing a sharp revenue decline, and a failed short-term momentum gate adds further caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing strongly, up about 27% year over year, a pace that stands out within an otherwise weak quality profile. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 27% pace over the next 12 months if the growth trajectory is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterElsewhere the bundle flags declining revenue as part of a value-trap signal set, a direct contradiction with this growth read, and the business separately shows quality concerns and cash burn that could mean the reported growth isn't translating into healthier fundamentals. | ||
The profile also flags three value-trap signals: revenue declining about 72.6% year over year, an operating margin compressed to roughly -1473%, and a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.6. Bear case | For the value-trap read to ease, the operating margin should recover toward breakeven and leverage should decline over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA separate growth read in the same profile shows revenue up about 27% year over year, directly at odds with the revenue-decline figure cited here, so this value-trap signal set may not fully reflect the current growth trajectory. | ||
Short-term momentum has failed the engine's minimum threshold, though the underlying note frames this as a pullback within an uptrend — RSI near 33 while shares remain above the 200-day moving average — rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | For momentum to recover, the RSI should rebound from its current pullback level while price holds above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution rather than accumulation during this pullback, which could mean the uptrend is losing support rather than simply resting. | ||
The reward-to-risk setup here is favorable, with about 38% upside to the take-profit level against roughly 6% downside to the stop-loss, a reward-to-risk ratio near 2.5-to-1. Targets | For this asymmetry to hold, shares should make meaningful progress toward the take-profit level over the next 12 months without first triggering the stop-loss. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA failed momentum gate and light analyst coverage — which the data itself flags as a dampened signal — both cut against confidence that the technical target will be reached on the timeline implied. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly, up about 27% year over year, a pace that stands out within an otherwise weak quality profile.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 27% pace over the next 12 months if the growth trajectory is durable.
CounterElsewhere the bundle flags declining revenue as part of a value-trap signal set, a direct contradiction with this growth read, and the business separately shows quality concerns and cash burn that could mean the reported growth isn't translating into healthier fundamentals.
The profile also flags three value-trap signals: revenue declining about 72.6% year over year, an operating margin compressed to roughly -1473%, and a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.6.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- For the value-trap read to ease, the operating margin should recover toward breakeven and leverage should decline over the next 12 months.
CounterA separate growth read in the same profile shows revenue up about 27% year over year, directly at odds with the revenue-decline figure cited here, so this value-trap signal set may not fully reflect the current growth trajectory.
Short-term momentum has failed the engine's minimum threshold, though the underlying note frames this as a pullback within an uptrend — RSI near 33 while shares remain above the 200-day moving average — rather than a confirmed breakdown.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For momentum to recover, the RSI should rebound from its current pullback level while price holds above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution rather than accumulation during this pullback, which could mean the uptrend is losing support rather than simply resting.
The reward-to-risk setup here is favorable, with about 38% upside to the take-profit level against roughly 6% downside to the stop-loss, a reward-to-risk ratio near 2.5-to-1.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- For this asymmetry to hold, shares should make meaningful progress toward the take-profit level over the next 12 months without first triggering the stop-loss.
CounterA failed momentum gate and light analyst coverage — which the data itself flags as a dampened signal — both cut against confidence that the technical target will be reached on the timeline implied.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 3.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $68,231 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.1 |
- ▸High IV: 149%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
1.43
Upside
+21.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.96>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.4<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 9.7 and asymmetric R:R of 1.43.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.0, Catalyst at 3.0, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY, down from the current 27% pace.
- P2Quantified Value Trap Signals
Trip ifThe operating margin rises above -100%, recovering sharply from the current -1473%.
- P3Failed Momentum Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifThe momentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the threshold from the current 2.6 reading.
- P4Favorable Reward Risk Asymmetry
Trip ifThe reward-to-risk ratio falls below 1.0-to-1, down sharply from the current 2.54-to-1.