Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
QGEN · Why this verdict
Why Qiagen (QGEN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With only 3.0% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58, the current stock price leaves almost no margin for error; the downside risk of 5.2% to the stop-loss is nearly double the upside. Bear case | A material price correction brings the upside to analyst target above 15%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the company's earnings trajectory stabilizes, analysts may raise their price targets, which would restore the upside margin without requiring a price decline. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates that across nine fundamental financial signals — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — the company is in a healthy financial position, reducing the risk of deteriorating fundamentals. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles, confirming sustained financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score did not prevent the current downtrend; the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope, suggesting macro or sector-level pressure outweighs individual company health. | ||
The company has delivered results in line with or above estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 4.1% beat and an inline result, demonstrating management's ability to guide and execute predictably. Earnings | The company delivers earnings at or above estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage earnings surprises have been minimal, with a 1.25% average over four quarters, suggesting the company is barely clearing a low bar rather than demonstrating strong operational momentum. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope over 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling, indicating both price and volume signals confirm a distribution pattern where more shares are being sold than accumulated. Momentum breakdown | The stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving despite the downtrend, and the recovery setup with RSI at 59 suggests sellers may be exhausting themselves before a trend reversal. | ||
With only 3.0% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58, the current stock price leaves almost no margin for error; the downside risk of 5.2% to the stop-loss is nearly double the upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A material price correction brings the upside to analyst target above 15%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterIf the company's earnings trajectory stabilizes, analysts may raise their price targets, which would restore the upside margin without requiring a price decline.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates that across nine fundamental financial signals — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — the company is in a healthy financial position, reducing the risk of deteriorating fundamentals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles, confirming sustained financial health.
CounterA high Piotroski score did not prevent the current downtrend; the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope, suggesting macro or sector-level pressure outweighs individual company health.
The company has delivered results in line with or above estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 4.1% beat and an inline result, demonstrating management's ability to guide and execute predictably.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers earnings at or above estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterAverage earnings surprises have been minimal, with a 1.25% average over four quarters, suggesting the company is barely clearing a low bar rather than demonstrating strong operational momentum.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope over 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling, indicating both price and volume signals confirm a distribution pattern where more shares are being sold than accumulated.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving despite the downtrend, and the recovery setup with RSI at 59 suggests sellers may be exhausting themselves before a trend reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Qiagen is a diagnostics and research company with a strong Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 and consistent earnings delivery, but thin 3% upside to analyst targets, a confirmed price downtrend, and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58 suggest the current entry point offers insufficient margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 9.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 13 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 87.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, Quality at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Technical at 2.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in any reported period.
- P2Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines to below $35.00.
- P4Price Downtrend Volume Divergence
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines beyond -6% over any 30-day window.