Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
QGEN · Why this verdict
Why Qiagen (QGEN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Qiagen is a diagnostics and research company with a strong Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 and consistent earnings delivery, but thin 3% upside to analyst targets, a confirmed price downtrend, and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58 suggest the current entry point offers insufficient margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With only 3.0% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58, the current stock price leaves almost no margin for error; the downside risk of 5.2% to the stop-loss is nearly double the upside. Bear case | A material price correction brings the upside to analyst target above 15%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the company's earnings trajectory stabilizes, analysts may raise their price targets, which would restore the upside margin without requiring a price decline. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates that across nine fundamental financial signals — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — the company is in a healthy financial position, reducing the risk of deteriorating fundamentals. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles, confirming sustained financial health. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high Piotroski score did not prevent the current downtrend; the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope, suggesting macro or sector-level pressure outweighs individual company health. | ||
The company has delivered results in line with or above estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 4.1% beat and an inline result, demonstrating management's ability to guide and execute predictably. Earnings | The company delivers earnings at or above estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage earnings surprises have been minimal, with a 1.25% average over four quarters, suggesting the company is barely clearing a low bar rather than demonstrating strong operational momentum. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope over 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling, indicating both price and volume signals confirm a distribution pattern where more shares are being sold than accumulated. Momentum breakdown | The stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving despite the downtrend, and the recovery setup with RSI at 59 suggests sellers may be exhausting themselves before a trend reversal. | ||
With only 3.0% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.58, the current stock price leaves almost no margin for error; the downside risk of 5.2% to the stop-loss is nearly double the upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A material price correction brings the upside to analyst target above 15%, improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterIf the company's earnings trajectory stabilizes, analysts may raise their price targets, which would restore the upside margin without requiring a price decline.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates that across nine fundamental financial signals — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — the company is in a healthy financial position, reducing the risk of deteriorating fundamentals.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next two reporting cycles, confirming sustained financial health.
CounterA high Piotroski score did not prevent the current downtrend; the stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope, suggesting macro or sector-level pressure outweighs individual company health.
The company has delivered results in line with or above estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 4.1% beat and an inline result, demonstrating management's ability to guide and execute predictably.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers earnings at or above estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterAverage earnings surprises have been minimal, with a 1.25% average over four quarters, suggesting the company is barely clearing a low bar rather than demonstrating strong operational momentum.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with a -3.9% slope over 30 days, and on-balance volume is falling, indicating both price and volume signals confirm a distribution pattern where more shares are being sold than accumulated.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving despite the downtrend, and the recovery setup with RSI at 59 suggests sellers may be exhausting themselves before a trend reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.42 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.86
Upside
-6.8%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.2; weakest: Growth at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 3.7, Technical at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in any reported period.
- P2Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines to below $35.00.
- P4Price Downtrend Volume Divergence
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines beyond -6% over any 30-day window.