Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.1 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.89
PWR · Why this verdict
Why Quanta Services (PWR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Quanta Services has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and 26% year-over-year earnings growth driven by infrastructure buildout, but with 70% of revenue concentrated in utility and power customers and the stock already priced above analyst targets, the risk-reward no longer favors new entry at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Utility and power customers represent 70% of total revenue, creating significant exposure to regulatory changes, rate cases, or capital spending deferrals by regulated utilities that could materially reduce the backlog and revenue outlook. Bear case | No single utility customer represents more than 20% of total revenue in any given quarter, providing within-segment diversification. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe secular tailwind of grid hardening, renewable interconnection, and data center power demand is a structural driver that makes the 70% utility concentration a feature rather than a bug over a 5-10 year horizon. | ||
Quanta Services has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and delivered 26% year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrating strong operational execution in the infrastructure and power delivery market. Earnings | Earnings growth sustains above 15% year over year for the next 12 months as utility capex spending continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's beat was only 31.8% on a single quarter, and three prior quarters showed beats of 1-5%, suggesting beat momentum is narrowing as estimates catch up to reality. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 44x and PEG of 2.0, and the current price of $724 is already 5.4% above the resistance-based take profit target of $752, indicating that the current price requires continued execution well above current consensus to generate positive returns. Valuation breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth sustain above 20% to justify the current valuation multiple over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInfrastructure and construction companies at cyclical peaks often trade at elevated multiples that compress quickly if growth decelerates; a 44x forward P/E provides little margin of safety. | ||
Despite elevated valuation, rising OBV and the stock trading above its 200-day moving average indicate ongoing institutional accumulation and broad market confidence in the company's growth trajectory. Momentum breakdown | OBV continues to trend higher and the stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume accumulation in a stock already above its analyst target and at a 44x forward P/E may reflect momentum-chasing rather than fundamental conviction, making the signal unreliable. | ||
Utility and power customers represent 70% of total revenue, creating significant exposure to regulatory changes, rate cases, or capital spending deferrals by regulated utilities that could materially reduce the backlog and revenue outlook.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No single utility customer represents more than 20% of total revenue in any given quarter, providing within-segment diversification.
CounterThe secular tailwind of grid hardening, renewable interconnection, and data center power demand is a structural driver that makes the 70% utility concentration a feature rather than a bug over a 5-10 year horizon.
Quanta Services has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and delivered 26% year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrating strong operational execution in the infrastructure and power delivery market.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains above 15% year over year for the next 12 months as utility capex spending continues.
CounterThe most recent quarter's beat was only 31.8% on a single quarter, and three prior quarters showed beats of 1-5%, suggesting beat momentum is narrowing as estimates catch up to reality.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 44x and PEG of 2.0, and the current price of $724 is already 5.4% above the resistance-based take profit target of $752, indicating that the current price requires continued execution well above current consensus to generate positive returns.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth sustain above 20% to justify the current valuation multiple over the next 12 months.
CounterInfrastructure and construction companies at cyclical peaks often trade at elevated multiples that compress quickly if growth decelerates; a 44x forward P/E provides little margin of safety.
Despite elevated valuation, rising OBV and the stock trading above its 200-day moving average indicate ongoing institutional accumulation and broad market confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- OBV continues to trend higher and the stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months.
CounterVolume accumulation in a stock already above its analyst target and at a 44x forward P/E may reflect momentum-chasing rather than fundamental conviction, making the signal unreliable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.3 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.59
- ▸Above max pain $230
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:74d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.07
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Value at 3.8, and Insider at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Growth Execution
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 10% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Utility Customer Concentration
Trip ifUtility and power customer revenue share exceeds 80% in any annual disclosure.
- P3Rich Valuation Above Target
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 25x following earnings estimate cuts of more than 20%.
- P4Volume Accumulation Support
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and OBV declines for more than 45 days.