Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.74
PUK · Why this verdict
Why Prudential Public Limited Compa (PUK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Prudential plc offers a rare combination of best-in-class peer margins (ranked 9.0/10 for quality vs. peers), wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 42% margin of safety relative to analyst targets, though current price momentum is weak with RSI at 29 and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Prudential plc holds a wide economic moat designation with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, net margins of 28%, and a peer quality rank of 9.0/10, placing it among the strongest business quality profiles in the life insurance industry. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion at 70% of net income carries an earnings quality warning, suggesting some portion of reported income is not yet collected as cash, reducing the reliability of the margin figures. | ||
Analysts see 42% upside from current prices, and the risk/reward ratio of 3.35 (21.1% upside vs 6.3% downside) provides a meaningful margin of safety even after applying a 15% haircut to the analyst consensus target. Targets | Price rises above $32.86 analyst target within 18 months as fundamentals are recognized by the market. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (only 3 analysts) means the consensus target has high uncertainty and may not reflect institutional market-maker views of the stock's fair value. | ||
RSI has fallen to 29 (near oversold), the stock is below its 200-day moving average, and the 200-day MA is still rising at +2.0% per month, suggesting the current pullback is occurring within a longer-term uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 40 and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 29 with the stock below its long-term trend could also mark the beginning of a more serious downtrend rather than a temporary pullback, particularly if macro conditions for life insurers deteriorate. | ||
A put/call ratio of 4.00 is an elevated bearish signal, and the stock is trading above its options max pain level of $20 by 36%, suggesting short-term downward gravitational pull toward the max pain level as expiration approaches. Options | Put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock's oversold bounce attracts buyers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPut/call ratios in thinly covered international stocks can be dominated by institutional hedgers protecting long positions rather than speculative short bets, making the signal less predictive. | ||
Prudential plc holds a wide economic moat designation with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, net margins of 28%, and a peer quality rank of 9.0/10, placing it among the strongest business quality profiles in the life insurance industry.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow conversion at 70% of net income carries an earnings quality warning, suggesting some portion of reported income is not yet collected as cash, reducing the reliability of the margin figures.
Analysts see 42% upside from current prices, and the risk/reward ratio of 3.35 (21.1% upside vs 6.3% downside) provides a meaningful margin of safety even after applying a 15% haircut to the analyst consensus target.
Tripped↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price rises above $32.86 analyst target within 18 months as fundamentals are recognized by the market.
CounterLight analyst coverage (only 3 analysts) means the consensus target has high uncertainty and may not reflect institutional market-maker views of the stock's fair value.
RSI has fallen to 29 (near oversold), the stock is below its 200-day moving average, and the 200-day MA is still rising at +2.0% per month, suggesting the current pullback is occurring within a longer-term uptrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 40 and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months.
CounterAn RSI of 29 with the stock below its long-term trend could also mark the beginning of a more serious downtrend rather than a temporary pullback, particularly if macro conditions for life insurers deteriorate.
A put/call ratio of 4.00 is an elevated bearish signal, and the stock is trading above its options max pain level of $20 by 36%, suggesting short-term downward gravitational pull toward the max pain level as expiration approaches.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock's oversold bounce attracts buyers.
CounterPut/call ratios in thinly covered international stocks can be dominated by institutional hedgers protecting long positions rather than speculative short bets, making the signal less predictive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
Growth
1.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.79
Upside
+19.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.79 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.6, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.0, Momentum at 2.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Leadership
Trip ifNet margins fall below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside Margin Of SafetyTripped
Trip ifPrice falls more than 20% below the current level of $27.14 without analyst target revisions.
- P3Momentum Below Trend Risk
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 45 consecutive days without a recovery above 35.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 6.0 on increasing open interest for more than 30 consecutive days.