Value
0.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
PSQL · Why this verdict
Why Pasqal Holding (PSQL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pasqal is a speculative, cash-burning hardware company (free cash flow at negative 77% of revenue, quality 2.6) trading 77% below its high, with heavy insider buying and a 148.9% gap to the analyst target but broken momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.6, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at negative 77% of revenue, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows to better than -40% of revenue and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA gross margin component of 8.1 suggests the product economics work, so heavy burn may reflect investment in scale rather than a broken model. | ||
Insiders bought $7,382,811 (0.613% of market cap) across 2 purchases with no sales in 90 days, a bullish signal. Insider transaction read | Insider buying continues and net insider activity stays positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the two purchases was unpriced and valued using a last-price proxy, so the dollar amount is approximate, and insiders buying at a 77% drawdown may be averaging down. | ||
The analyst target of $14.11 sits 148.9% above the $5.67 price against 15.0% downside, an asymmetry of 9.93, though coverage is light. Upside pct | Price converges toward the $14.11 analyst target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only 4 analysts and a 193% raw implied upside, the target may be stale or anchored to optimistic projections for an unproven technology company. | ||
Momentum is 3.0, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume, a 52-week position component of 0.0 and a 77% drawdown from the high. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 4.5 and price recovers from the 52-week low area over 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD component is 6.6, which suggests a bottoming pattern may be forming despite weak volume. | ||
The volatility component is 0.0, indicating extreme price swings, though short interest and days-to-cover components score 9.9 and 10.0. Components | Volatility declines and the risk score rises above 7.0 as the stock stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterLow short interest limits squeeze potential and risk confidence is only 0.6, so the risk score is uncertain. | ||
Quality is 2.6, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at negative 77% of revenue, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows to better than -40% of revenue and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterA gross margin component of 8.1 suggests the product economics work, so heavy burn may reflect investment in scale rather than a broken model.
Insiders bought $7,382,811 (0.613% of market cap) across 2 purchases with no sales in 90 days, a bullish signal.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues and net insider activity stays positive over the next 12 months.
CounterOne of the two purchases was unpriced and valued using a last-price proxy, so the dollar amount is approximate, and insiders buying at a 77% drawdown may be averaging down.
The analyst target of $14.11 sits 148.9% above the $5.67 price against 15.0% downside, an asymmetry of 9.93, though coverage is light.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the $14.11 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterWith only 4 analysts and a 193% raw implied upside, the target may be stale or anchored to optimistic projections for an unproven technology company.
Momentum is 3.0, below the 4.5 gate, with falling on-balance volume, a 52-week position component of 0.0 and a 77% drawdown from the high.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 4.5 and price recovers from the 52-week low area over 12 months.
CounterMACD component is 6.6, which suggests a bottoming pattern may be forming despite weak volume.
The volatility component is 0.0, indicating extreme price swings, though short interest and days-to-cover components score 9.9 and 10.0.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Volatility declines and the risk score rises above 7.0 as the stock stabilizes.
CounterLow short interest limits squeeze potential and risk confidence is only 0.6, so the risk score is uncertain.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -77% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 209%
Insider
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $6,966,144 (0.590% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -78% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Insider at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 8.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Value at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.6, and Momentum at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $1M in any 90-day window.
- P2Cash Burning Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -60% of revenue for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Large Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $8, cutting upside to less than 40% from $5.67.
- P4Negative Momentum Deep DrawdownTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $5.38 stop level, more than 5% under $5.67.
- P5High Volatility Risk
Trip ifRisk score falls below 4.0 from the current 6.6.