Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.67
PRK · Why this verdict
Why Park National (PRK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Park National Corporation is a well-run regional bank with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat record, 21% revenue growth, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but the stock has surpassed analyst targets and the negative risk-reward ratio makes new entries unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Park National has beaten earnings expectations in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 10.7%, including a 14.9% beat in the most recent quarter ending April 2026, demonstrating reliable execution. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and the average quarterly surprise remains above 5% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSmaller regional banks face net interest margin compression from rate changes, and a single disappointing quarter could break the streak and reset the premium valuation. | ||
Revenue grew 21% year over year, well above median growth rates for the regional banking industry, supported by a PEG ratio of 0.80 that suggests the growth is not yet fully reflected in the valuation. Growth breakdown | Annual revenue growth remains above 10% in the next reported fiscal year, sustaining the above-peer growth profile. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to rate cycles and credit quality; a reversal in net interest income trends could quickly erode the apparent growth advantage. | ||
At $176.03, the stock has moved 11.2% above the implied analyst target level, and with only a $2.66 gap to resistance and a risk-reward ratio of 0.34, the entry timing is unfavorable for new positions. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% within 12 months to re-open entry opportunity with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalysts may upgrade targets following continued earnings beats, quickly restoring a positive setup without requiring any price correction. | ||
The dividend payout appears covered at 247% of some base metric flagged in the data, suggesting a generous but potentially stretched yield that needs continued earnings growth to remain sustainable. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend is maintained or increased without a special cut announcement over the next 4 quarterly payments. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDividend payout ratios at elevated levels in a slowing rate environment may compress if earnings per share growth decelerates. | ||
Park National has beaten earnings expectations in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 10.7%, including a 14.9% beat in the most recent quarter ending April 2026, demonstrating reliable execution.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and the average quarterly surprise remains above 5% over the next 12 months.
CounterSmaller regional banks face net interest margin compression from rate changes, and a single disappointing quarter could break the streak and reset the premium valuation.
Revenue grew 21% year over year, well above median growth rates for the regional banking industry, supported by a PEG ratio of 0.80 that suggests the growth is not yet fully reflected in the valuation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Annual revenue growth remains above 10% in the next reported fiscal year, sustaining the above-peer growth profile.
CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to rate cycles and credit quality; a reversal in net interest income trends could quickly erode the apparent growth advantage.
At $176.03, the stock has moved 11.2% above the implied analyst target level, and with only a $2.66 gap to resistance and a risk-reward ratio of 0.34, the entry timing is unfavorable for new positions.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% within 12 months to re-open entry opportunity with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterAnalysts may upgrade targets following continued earnings beats, quickly restoring a positive setup without requiring any price correction.
The dividend payout appears covered at 247% of some base metric flagged in the data, suggesting a generous but potentially stretched yield that needs continued earnings growth to remain sustainable.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend is maintained or increased without a special cut announcement over the next 4 quarterly payments.
CounterDividend payout ratios at elevated levels in a slowing rate environment may compress if earnings per share growth decelerates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 9.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.55
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Technical at 7.9; weakest: Peer rank at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Catalyst at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.9, Sentiment at 5.4, and Momentum at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Revenue Growth Above Peer Median
Trip ifAnnual revenue growth falls below 5% in the next reported fiscal year.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $200, restoring more than 12% upside from current levels.
- P4High Dividend Payout Coverage
Trip ifDividend per share is cut by more than 15% from the current level in any declared quarterly payment.