Value
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 25.9x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
PLD · Why this verdict
Why Prologis (PLD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Prologis has a high concentration in logistics real estate, exposing the portfolio to a single property type and making it vulnerable to shifts in e-commerce supply chain patterns, tenant bankruptcies in retail-adjacent logistics, or near-shoring reversals. Bear case | Logistics vacancy rates in Prologis's markets remain below 5% and same-store net operating income growth stays above 3% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLogistics concentration may be a strategic strength rather than a weakness — being the dominant player in the fastest-growing commercial real estate segment commands premium rents and long-term leases. | ||
Prologis converts 131% of net income to free cash flow — an elite quality signal — and maintains a Rule of 40 score of 60, placing it in the top tier of REIT operating quality with gross margins of 40% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income and operating margins stay above 35% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in REITs is partly structural (depreciation adds back to FFO) and does not necessarily translate to distributable cash after debt service on a 27.1x price-to-operating cash flow multiple. | ||
Prologis has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 36%, including a 112% beat in January 2026, demonstrating strong execution and the ability to outperform consensus expectations. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters with the next report due in approximately 30 days. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats have been inconsistent in magnitude — the most recent two showed 41.6% and 112% surprises followed by an 8.8% beat, suggesting lumpy revenue recognition that may not be sustainable at these levels. | ||
With the current price of $147.43 above the take-profit target of $146.11 and implied upside of negative 0.9%, Prologis has priced in near-term analyst expectations, and an upcoming management change noted in regulatory filings adds an additional uncertainty layer. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $160 within 12 months, restoring positive implied upside of at least 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice targets are revised upward regularly in high-quality REITs with consistent beat track records, and the current exhaustion of upside could be a temporary condition rather than a structural ceiling. | ||
Prologis has a high concentration in logistics real estate, exposing the portfolio to a single property type and making it vulnerable to shifts in e-commerce supply chain patterns, tenant bankruptcies in retail-adjacent logistics, or near-shoring reversals.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Logistics vacancy rates in Prologis's markets remain below 5% and same-store net operating income growth stays above 3% over 12 months.
CounterLogistics concentration may be a strategic strength rather than a weakness — being the dominant player in the fastest-growing commercial real estate segment commands premium rents and long-term leases.
Prologis converts 131% of net income to free cash flow — an elite quality signal — and maintains a Rule of 40 score of 60, placing it in the top tier of REIT operating quality with gross margins of 40% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income and operating margins stay above 35% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in REITs is partly structural (depreciation adds back to FFO) and does not necessarily translate to distributable cash after debt service on a 27.1x price-to-operating cash flow multiple.
Prologis has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 36%, including a 112% beat in January 2026, demonstrating strong execution and the ability to outperform consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters with the next report due in approximately 30 days.
CounterBeats have been inconsistent in magnitude — the most recent two showed 41.6% and 112% surprises followed by an 8.8% beat, suggesting lumpy revenue recognition that may not be sustainable at these levels.
With the current price of $147.43 above the take-profit target of $146.11 and implied upside of negative 0.9%, Prologis has priced in near-term analyst expectations, and an upcoming management change noted in regulatory filings adds an additional uncertainty layer.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $160 within 12 months, restoring positive implied upside of at least 10%.
CounterPrice targets are revised upward regularly in high-quality REITs with consistent beat track records, and the current exhaustion of upside could be a temporary condition rather than a structural ceiling.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Prologis is an elite-quality industrial REIT with a Rule of 40 score of 60 and 131% free cash flow conversion, but the stock has already reached and exceeded the analyst price target with negative implied upside, making new entry unattractive at current prices near $147.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 131% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 60 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=4)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $539,550 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 307.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-5.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Momentum at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Quality at 7.0, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Value at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 10% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P3Logistics Concentration Risk
Trip ifSame-store net operating income growth drops below 2% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Target Price Exhaustion
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $140, confirming the stock is above fair value by more than 5%.