Value
5.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
PJT · Why this verdict
Why PJT Partners (PJT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery. | ||
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital. | ||
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal. | ||
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves.
CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery.
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise.
CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital.
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered.
CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal.
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PJT Partners has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, and four consecutive earnings beats — but is in a confirmed death cross downtrend with a put-to-call ratio of 5.03, the highest in the dataset, and momentum that has failed all three entry gates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,682,836 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 61.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $162.99 has reached target $160.57. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.9>=7.5+momentum=7.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.74
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of -0.74.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.9, Momentum at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 or ROE drops below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating deterioration in business quality.
- P2Extreme Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0 or open interest on puts exceeds 5 times call open interest, indicating extreme bearish positioning escalation.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $145 or momentum score falls below 2.5, indicating the downtrend is intensifying rather than recovering.
- P4Four Quarter Earnings Beat
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in the next quarterly report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.