Value
9.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
PGY · Why this verdict
Why Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PGY combines a strong earnings beat streak and deep-value multiple with a short-squeeze setup, but sits in a confirmed technical downtrend with leverage penalties still weighing on the score.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PGY's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) with estimates trending up, consistent with an average surprise of 20.9% in the earnings data. Bull case | The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-08-06. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains in a confirmed technical downtrend, down 60% from its 52-week high, suggesting fundamentals haven't yet translated into price recovery. | ||
Value notes flag PGY as attractively valued at a forward P/E of just 5.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.05. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near its current elevated 9.3 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA persistently depressed multiple can also reflect market skepticism about the durability of Pagaya's AI-lending-platform earnings model rather than a clear bargain. | ||
Momentum notes confirm a downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a moving-average slope of -12.8% over the last 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 12 months if the recovery setup plays out. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe engine's own setup classification is RECOVERY, noting improving MACD and RSI at 64, suggesting the downtrend may already be reversing despite the confirmed slope. | ||
The bear case flags a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5, applying a -0.5 scoring drag. Bear case | The debt-to-equity ratio should decline from 1.5 toward a lower, less-penalized level over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion (189% FCF/NI) and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggest the balance sheet is generating ample cash to service the current leverage. | ||
Risk notes identify a short-squeeze setup with 19% short interest against a relatively high quality score component of 7.5, alongside elevated implied volatility of 83%. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline meaningfully or a squeeze-driven price spike should materialize over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsiders have been net sellers over the same period, which could offset any short-covering pressure and cap upside from a potential squeeze. | ||
PGY's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) with estimates trending up, consistent with an average surprise of 20.9% in the earnings data.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-08-06.
CounterThe stock remains in a confirmed technical downtrend, down 60% from its 52-week high, suggesting fundamentals haven't yet translated into price recovery.
Value notes flag PGY as attractively valued at a forward P/E of just 5.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.05.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near its current elevated 9.3 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months.
CounterA persistently depressed multiple can also reflect market skepticism about the durability of Pagaya's AI-lending-platform earnings model rather than a clear bargain.
Momentum notes confirm a downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a moving-average slope of -12.8% over the last 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 12 months if the recovery setup plays out.
CounterThe engine's own setup classification is RECOVERY, noting improving MACD and RSI at 64, suggesting the downtrend may already be reversing despite the confirmed slope.
The bear case flags a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5, applying a -0.5 scoring drag.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The debt-to-equity ratio should decline from 1.5 toward a lower, less-penalized level over the next 12 months.
CounterExcellent cash conversion (189% FCF/NI) and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggest the balance sheet is generating ample cash to service the current leverage.
Risk notes identify a short-squeeze setup with 19% short interest against a relatively high quality score component of 7.5, alongside elevated implied volatility of 83%.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully or a squeeze-driven price spike should materialize over the next 12 months.
CounterInsiders have been net sellers over the same period, which could offset any short-covering pressure and cap upside from a potential squeeze.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 189% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $178,029 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 15% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.83
Upside
+36.7%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.4; weakest: Momentum at 1.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Sentiment at 7.7, and Growth at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the August 6, 2026 earnings report, breaking the beat streak.
- P2Attractive Deep Value MultipleTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 5.0x, eliminating the deep-value multiple.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P4Leverage Penalty Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.5, removing the leverage penalty.
- P5Short Squeeze Setup
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% from the current 19% without a corresponding price spike, unwinding the squeeze setup.