Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
PD · Why this verdict
Why PagerDuty (PD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 95%
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 60% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,228,931 (0.422% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.7 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.62
- ▸High IV: 82%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.42%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.35
Upside
-20.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.42%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.35 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 6.5, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 0.9, Growth at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.