Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.3x
PD · Why this verdict
Why PagerDuty (PD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PagerDuty shows strong returns and a perfect earnings beat streak, but heavy insider selling that failed the engine's own gate, a target already reached, and a still-confirmed downtrend argue for caution despite the quality metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posts an excellent ROE of 95% and strong margins of 39%, underpinning its peer-relative quality ranking despite a Rule of 40 failure. Quality breakdown | ROE should remain above 60% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE this high alongside a leverage penalty (D/E 1.8) suggests the return is partly amplified by debt rather than purely operating excellence, making it more fragile to a downturn. | ||
Insider selling has failed the engine's gate at 0.42% of market cap (rated HEAVY), with notable selling totaling roughly $3.2 million in recent activity. Engine gate (failed) | Insider selling should moderate to below the heavy threshold and the insider signal should turn neutral over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy insider selling combined with an already-negative asymmetry ratio strengthens rather than weakens the bear case, since it suggests those closest to the business are reducing exposure at current levels. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 33%. Catalyst breakdown | The company should continue beating consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA beat streak alongside heavy insider selling and a failing Rule-of-40 score suggests the beats may stem from cost discipline rather than durable top-line strength. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior price target, with the model flagging -20.3% modeled upside from the current level. Warnings | A new, higher price target should be established to justify further appreciation over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReaching a prior target with a deeply negative asymmetry ratio and heavy insider selling both point toward the stock being fully valued or overextended rather than primed for a re-rating. | ||
The stock remains in a recovery setup after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at 68, but price is still below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months while the moving-average slope turns positive. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterRecovery attempts after a confirmed downtrend frequently fail on the first bounce, especially against a backdrop of heavy insider selling. | ||
The company posts an excellent ROE of 95% and strong margins of 39%, underpinning its peer-relative quality ranking despite a Rule of 40 failure.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should remain above 60% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterROE this high alongside a leverage penalty (D/E 1.8) suggests the return is partly amplified by debt rather than purely operating excellence, making it more fragile to a downturn.
Insider selling has failed the engine's gate at 0.42% of market cap (rated HEAVY), with notable selling totaling roughly $3.2 million in recent activity.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate to below the heavy threshold and the insider signal should turn neutral over the next 12 months.
CounterHeavy insider selling combined with an already-negative asymmetry ratio strengthens rather than weakens the bear case, since it suggests those closest to the business are reducing exposure at current levels.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 33%.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterA beat streak alongside heavy insider selling and a failing Rule-of-40 score suggests the beats may stem from cost discipline rather than durable top-line strength.
The stock has already reached its prior price target, with the model flagging -20.3% modeled upside from the current level.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- A new, higher price target should be established to justify further appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterReaching a prior target with a deeply negative asymmetry ratio and heavy insider selling both point toward the stock being fully valued or overextended rather than primed for a re-rating.
The stock remains in a recovery setup after a death cross, with MACD improving and RSI at 68, but price is still below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months while the moving-average slope turns positive.
CounterRecovery attempts after a confirmed downtrend frequently fail on the first bounce, especially against a backdrop of heavy insider selling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 95%
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 60% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $7,469,869 (1.105% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.10%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.32
Upside
-4.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:1.10%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.6, Value at 7.0, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.1, Growth at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Selling Gate Failure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $5 million over a rolling 90-day window.
- P2Excellent Roe Quality Despite Warnings
Trip ifROE falls below 50%.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifThe average analyst price target stays below the current price for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Recovery AttemptTripped
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below the 200-day moving average.