Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.66
PBH · Why this verdict
Why Prestige Consumer Healthcare In (PBH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Prestige Consumer Healthcare trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with analyst upside of 25% and strong operating margins of 17%, but has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with estimates trending downward — making the value case dependent on a fundamental turnaround that has not yet materialized.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.3x and analyst upside of 25% to roughly $58, Prestige Consumer Healthcare offers an attractive entry price relative to its 17% operating margin and 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, suggesting the market is overly penalizing the earnings miss streak. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $55 within 12 months as the valuation discount is recognized once the earnings miss streak ends. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour consecutive earnings misses averaging negative 7% surprise, combined with declining revenue of 5% year over year, suggest estimates are still too high rather than the stock being undervalued. | ||
Despite four consecutive earnings misses, Prestige Consumer Healthcare maintains strong operating margins at 17% with free cash flow at 71% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating the business quality floor is intact. Quality breakdown | Operating margin stays above 14% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the margin floor holds despite revenue pressure. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue has declined 5% year over year and earnings estimates are trending downward; margin compression typically follows revenue decline in consumer healthcare as fixed overhead becomes a larger proportion of a shrinking sales base. | ||
The four consecutive earnings misses averaging negative 7% have already reset expectations significantly lower; the risk of a positive EPS surprise grows as estimates converge toward the true earnings run rate. Earnings | Earnings beat consensus by more than 3% in at least 1 of the next 2 quarters, signaling the miss streak is ending. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates trending downward means the market is still adjusting expectations lower; a company that misses by 11.5% and then 11.3% in consecutive quarters may still not have reached bottom estimates. | ||
Despite the confirmed death cross and downtrend, the MACD has improved to a score of 10 — the highest possible reading — suggesting a technical inflection may be forming even as price remains below key moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 9 months and sustains above that level for at least 20 consecutive trading days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD improvement in a stock with four consecutive earnings misses and declining revenue is unreliable as a fundamental inflection signal; the price remains near 52-week lows at only 0.4% above the annual trough. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.3x and analyst upside of 25% to roughly $58, Prestige Consumer Healthcare offers an attractive entry price relative to its 17% operating margin and 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, suggesting the market is overly penalizing the earnings miss streak.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $55 within 12 months as the valuation discount is recognized once the earnings miss streak ends.
CounterFour consecutive earnings misses averaging negative 7% surprise, combined with declining revenue of 5% year over year, suggest estimates are still too high rather than the stock being undervalued.
Despite four consecutive earnings misses, Prestige Consumer Healthcare maintains strong operating margins at 17% with free cash flow at 71% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating the business quality floor is intact.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 14% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the margin floor holds despite revenue pressure.
CounterRevenue has declined 5% year over year and earnings estimates are trending downward; margin compression typically follows revenue decline in consumer healthcare as fixed overhead becomes a larger proportion of a shrinking sales base.
The four consecutive earnings misses averaging negative 7% have already reset expectations significantly lower; the risk of a positive EPS surprise grows as estimates converge toward the true earnings run rate.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat consensus by more than 3% in at least 1 of the next 2 quarters, signaling the miss streak is ending.
CounterEstimates trending downward means the market is still adjusting expectations lower; a company that misses by 11.5% and then 11.3% in consecutive quarters may still not have reached bottom estimates.
Despite the confirmed death cross and downtrend, the MACD has improved to a score of 10 — the highest possible reading — suggesting a technical inflection may be forming even as price remains below key moving averages.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 9 months and sustains above that level for at least 20 consecutive trading days.
CounterMACD improvement in a stock with four consecutive earnings misses and declining revenue is unreliable as a fundamental inflection signal; the price remains near 52-week lows at only 0.4% above the annual trough.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $18,350 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.52
Upside
+7.5%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.52 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Growth at 2.0, and Catalyst at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Discount Vs Quality
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $45 for 2 consecutive months, eliminating the valuation discount thesis.
- P2Margin Quality Floor Support
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the margin quality floor.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak Resolution
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% for a 5th consecutive quarter, extending the miss streak further.
- P4Macd Recovery Amid Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $40 and holds below that level for more than 10 trading days, invalidating the MACD recovery thesis.