Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.50
- ▸Attractively valued
PBAM · Why this verdict
Why Private Bancorp of America (PBAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Private Bancorp of America is a profitable regional bank with 35% margins and a reasonable forward P/E of 9.4x, but the price is already 0.3% above the analyst target, momentum is oversold and weak, and the latest quarter was an EPS miss, leaving no upside to justify adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $82.30 is 0.3% above the analyst target of $82.02, so there is no upside to the target and the engine's asymmetry reading is negative. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above $90 so that meaningful upside reopens within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (4 analysts) and targets typically lag price, so a price above target often triggers upward revisions rather than a ceiling. | ||
Margins are strong at 35%, quality is 5.8 with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and the forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.49. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 35% and quality stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE (5.6) and ROA (1.2) components are only mid-range, so strong margins may not convert to superior returns on capital. | ||
EPS missed in the latest quarter ($1.97 against a $2.07 estimate, a 4.83% miss) and in the January 2026 quarter, giving 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters. Miss count | EPS meets or beats consensus in the next 2 reports and the beat count rises above misses. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBoth misses were small (under 5%) and the two beats were larger (13% and 19%), so the average surprise remains positive at 5.8%. | ||
Momentum is 2.6, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 28, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume, flagging capitulation risk. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 28 near the lower Bollinger band with a volume surge is a classic oversold-bounce setup, so selling may be exhausted. | ||
The risk score is 9.2 with days-to-cover at 10.0, beta at 10 and volatility at 7.5, marking a low-risk holding. Components | The risk score stays at or above 8.0 through the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRisk confidence is only 0.6, and a regional bank can reprice quickly on credit or deposit stress. | ||
The price of $82.30 is 0.3% above the analyst target of $82.02, so there is no upside to the target and the engine's asymmetry reading is negative.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $90 so that meaningful upside reopens within 12 months.
CounterCoverage is light (4 analysts) and targets typically lag price, so a price above target often triggers upward revisions rather than a ceiling.
Margins are strong at 35%, quality is 5.8 with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and the forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.49.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 35% and quality stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterROE (5.6) and ROA (1.2) components are only mid-range, so strong margins may not convert to superior returns on capital.
EPS missed in the latest quarter ($1.97 against a $2.07 estimate, a 4.83% miss) and in the January 2026 quarter, giving 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters.
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the next 2 reports and the beat count rises above misses.
CounterBoth misses were small (under 5%) and the two beats were larger (13% and 19%), so the average surprise remains positive at 5.8%.
Momentum is 2.6, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 28, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume, flagging capitulation risk.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at 28 near the lower Bollinger band with a volume surge is a classic oversold-bounce setup, so selling may be exhausted.
The risk score is 9.2 with days-to-cover at 10.0, beta at 10 and volatility at 7.5, marking a low-risk holding.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- The risk score stays at or above 8.0 through the next 12 months.
CounterRisk confidence is only 0.6, and a regional bank can reprice quickly on credit or deposit stress.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.65 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-1.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.9, Technical at 5.0, and Quality at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Exceeded
Trip ifPrice falls below the $79.39 stop level, more than 3.5% under $82.30.
- P2Profitable Bank Strong Margins
Trip ifMargins fall to less than 25% from the current 35%.
- P3Recent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Negative Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for more than 3 months.
- P5Low Risk Score Strong
Trip ifRisk score falls below 6.0.