Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
PBAM · Why this verdict
Why Private Bancorp of America (PBAM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PBAM screens as an attractively valued regional bank on paper, but has already reached its analyst price target, strung together consecutive earnings misses, and triggered a bearish news-sentiment downgrade, leaving the current overbought rally vulnerable to a reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of 10.4x and a low PEG ratio of 0.37, as noted in the value assessment. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay near or below the current 10.4x, or the PEG ratio hold under 0.5, if the attractive-valuation call is validated by continued earnings growth. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap valuation for a regional bank can also reflect deteriorating credit quality or emerging earnings misses, not just an undiscovered opportunity. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine computing a -10.4% upside, meaning price sits above the target rather than below it. Estimated upside | Upside_pct should remain negative or move further negative over the next 12 months if the target-reached call holds and no upward analyst revision occurs. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are frequently raised for strong regional banks reporting margin expansion, which would flip upside_pct positive even with no price change. | ||
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses, a red flag cited directly in the bear case for the stock. Bear case | Earnings surprises should turn positive again in the next reported quarter if the miss streak is a temporary blip rather than a deteriorating trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe broader earnings record shows a 2-beat, 2-miss split with a positive average surprise of about 5.4%, suggesting the miss streak may not represent genuine deterioration. | ||
A negative news modifier has downgraded the recommended stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, per the news modifier warning. Warnings | The news modifier should normalize back toward neutral or positive within the next few weeks if the underlying negative catalyst fades. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNews-driven modifiers can persist if the negative catalyst reflects a structural issue such as credit quality rather than a one-off headline. | ||
Momentum is technically overbought, with RSI at 88 during what the data characterizes as a bear rally, alongside rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool from the current overbought extreme toward a more neutral 40-60 range over the next few months if the rally loses steam as expected. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPersistent volume accumulation alongside an overbought RSI can also mark the start of a durable uptrend rather than a fleeting rally within a broader downtrend. | ||
The stock trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of 10.4x and a low PEG ratio of 0.37, as noted in the value assessment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay near or below the current 10.4x, or the PEG ratio hold under 0.5, if the attractive-valuation call is validated by continued earnings growth.
CounterA cheap valuation for a regional bank can also reflect deteriorating credit quality or emerging earnings misses, not just an undiscovered opportunity.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine computing a -10.4% upside, meaning price sits above the target rather than below it.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Upside_pct should remain negative or move further negative over the next 12 months if the target-reached call holds and no upward analyst revision occurs.
CounterAnalyst targets are frequently raised for strong regional banks reporting margin expansion, which would flip upside_pct positive even with no price change.
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses, a red flag cited directly in the bear case for the stock.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises should turn positive again in the next reported quarter if the miss streak is a temporary blip rather than a deteriorating trend.
CounterThe broader earnings record shows a 2-beat, 2-miss split with a positive average surprise of about 5.4%, suggesting the miss streak may not represent genuine deterioration.
A negative news modifier has downgraded the recommended stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, per the news modifier warning.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should normalize back toward neutral or positive within the next few weeks if the underlying negative catalyst fades.
CounterNews-driven modifiers can persist if the negative catalyst reflects a structural issue such as credit quality rather than a one-off headline.
Momentum is technically overbought, with RSI at 88 during what the data characterizes as a bear rally, alongside rising volume accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool from the current overbought extreme toward a more neutral 40-60 range over the next few months if the rally loses steam as expected.
CounterPersistent volume accumulation alongside an overbought RSI can also mark the start of a durable uptrend rather than a fleeting rally within a broader downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.7/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.22
Upside
-11.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.7; weakest: Technical at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.7, Value at 7.7, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Catalyst at 4.5, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation On Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 10.4x, or PEG exceeds 1.0 from the current 0.37.
- P2Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifUpside_pct rises above 5% from the current -10.4%.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current miss streak.
- P4News Modifier Downgrade
Trip ifThe news sentiment modifier rises above 0 from the current -1 value.
- P5Overbought Momentum In Bear Rally
Trip ifRSI falls below 60 from the current 88 reading.