Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
- ▸Attractively valued
PBAM · Why this verdict
Why Private Bancorp of America (PBAM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Private Bancorp of America is a profitable, attractively valued regional bank with strong margins, but the price already sits above its target, momentum is negative and earnings have been inconsistent, so there is no room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.35. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples on a small bank can reflect thin liquidity and funding risk, and the price already sits above the analyst-derived target. | ||
The bank shows strong margins of 35% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, with ROE superior to peers. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 30% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin is scored zero and ROA is only 1.2, so profitability depends on credit quality holding up. | ||
The price of $86.90 is 5.6% above the take-profit of $90.25, with an asymmetry ratio of -1.12, so upside is exhausted. Bear case | Price pulls back or earnings growth lifts the target so that the asymmetry ratio turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target is set from technical resistance and not a fundamental valuation, so a breakout above resistance would invalidate it. | ||
The last two quarters beat estimates (2.27 vs 2.01 and 2.07 vs 1.75) after two misses, with revenue of $43.4M in the June 2026 quarter. Earnings | EPS surprise stays above 0% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses came just before, and the revenue figure diverges 20% between the SEC filing and market data feed, so revenue is uncertain. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.6, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with price below its 200-day average and RSI at 30, even as rising on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims its 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 30 and rising on-balance volume suggest selling is exhausted and a rebound could come. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.35.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples on a small bank can reflect thin liquidity and funding risk, and the price already sits above the analyst-derived target.
The bank shows strong margins of 35% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, with ROE superior to peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 30% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterGross margin is scored zero and ROA is only 1.2, so profitability depends on credit quality holding up.
The price of $86.90 is 5.6% above the take-profit of $90.25, with an asymmetry ratio of -1.12, so upside is exhausted.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price pulls back or earnings growth lifts the target so that the asymmetry ratio turns positive.
CounterThe target is set from technical resistance and not a fundamental valuation, so a breakout above resistance would invalidate it.
The last two quarters beat estimates (2.27 vs 2.01 and 2.07 vs 1.75) after two misses, with revenue of $43.4M in the June 2026 quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays above 0% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterTwo misses came just before, and the revenue figure diverges 20% between the SEC filing and market data feed, so revenue is uncertain.
Momentum is weak at 3.6, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with price below its 200-day average and RSI at 30, even as rising on-balance volume shows accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims its 200-day average.
CounterAn RSI of 30 and rising on-balance volume suggest selling is exhausted and a rebound could come.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.0/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-5.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0, Value at 7.9, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Catalyst at 4.5, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from current 10.0x.
- P2Strong Margins Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 8 out of 9.
- P3Target Already Reached
Trip ifShare price exceeds $95 with the target unchanged, putting it more than 5% above the target.
- P4Earnings Record Recovering
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Negative Momentum
Trip ifShare price drops to $83.12 or below, hitting the stop loss.