Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
PAYS · Why this verdict
Why Paysign (PAYS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Paysign is a high-quality, fast-growing payments business with a wide moat and cheap growth-adjusted valuation, but the price is above the analyst target, insiders are heavy sellers and earnings surprises have been uneven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue reached about $28.25M versus about $19.08M a year earlier, roughly 48% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $29.0M. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue was nearly flat sequentially ($28.04M to $28.25M), so growth may be decelerating, and the growth score carries only 0.33 confidence. | ||
Quality notes cite an excellent ROE of 31%, strong margins of 16%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and margins above 12% while the moat holds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterROA scores only 2.9/10 and FCF quality 6.5/10, so ROE may be flattered by balance-sheet structure rather than operating strength. | ||
At $14.92 the stock is above the $12.27 analyst target (upside of -17.8%), so there is no stated upside despite a PEG of 0.25 on a forward P/E of 24.3x. Upside pct | Either analysts raise targets as growth continues or the price consolidates toward the target over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 0.25 suggests the target lags growth, and analysts may be slow to update for a rapidly growing small cap. | ||
Insiders sold about $6.09M over 90 days across 8 sales with zero buys, equal to 0.723% of market cap and rated extreme severity. Insider | Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling may reflect planned diversification by long-tenured holders after a strong run, with no signal about the business. | ||
Over the last 4 quarters Paysign recorded 1 beat, 2 inline results and 1 miss with an average surprise of -14.1%, though August beat at $0.10 versus $0.08. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in the report due in 16 days and stays at or above estimates afterward. | →Stable |
| CounterPer-share amounts are tiny, so small dollar differences produce large percentage surprises that overstate how unreliable results are. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $28.25M versus about $19.08M a year earlier, roughly 48% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $29.0M.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY across the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue was nearly flat sequentially ($28.04M to $28.25M), so growth may be decelerating, and the growth score carries only 0.33 confidence.
Quality notes cite an excellent ROE of 31%, strong margins of 16%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and margins above 12% while the moat holds.
CounterROA scores only 2.9/10 and FCF quality 6.5/10, so ROE may be flattered by balance-sheet structure rather than operating strength.
At $14.92 the stock is above the $12.27 analyst target (upside of -17.8%), so there is no stated upside despite a PEG of 0.25 on a forward P/E of 24.3x.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either analysts raise targets as growth continues or the price consolidates toward the target over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 0.25 suggests the target lags growth, and analysts may be slow to update for a rapidly growing small cap.
Insiders sold about $6.09M over 90 days across 8 sales with zero buys, equal to 0.723% of market cap and rated extreme severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months.
CounterSelling may reflect planned diversification by long-tenured holders after a strong run, with no signal about the business.
Over the last 4 quarters Paysign recorded 1 beat, 2 inline results and 1 miss with an average surprise of -14.1%, though August beat at $0.10 versus $0.08.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in the report due in 16 days and stays at or above estimates afterward.
CounterPer-share amounts are tiny, so small dollar differences produce large percentage surprises that overstate how unreliable results are.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 48% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 8.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $5,625,453 (0.715% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 109%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.71%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.21
Upside
-14.8%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.3, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Insider at 3.9, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 25% YoY from roughly 48% currently.
- P2High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifROE falls below 20% from current 31%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $16, more than 7% above the current $14.92 price.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider open-market buying exceeds $1M in a 90-day window, or 90-day selling falls below 0.2% of market cap.
- P5Uneven Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.