Orchid Island Capital (ORC) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.27
- Estimate
- $0.29
- Surprise
- -7.4%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $164.1M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.9 → 6.0/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) missed the $0.29 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.27 — a clear 7.4% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.9/10) to Sell at 6.0/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates ORC Sell at 4.3/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -7.4% surprise compares with a -5.4% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-01-28.
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Counterparty: Manager, Bimini Advisors
- Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS
- Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $4.67
- Price target
- $5.10
- Stop
- $4.50
- Upside to target
- +9.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.4:1
The stock trades at 24.0× trailing but 4.9× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-13 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
ORC at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $926.4M
- P/E (fwd)
- 4.9
- P/E (ttm)
- 24.0
- 52-week range
- $4.71–$8.40
- Off 52-week high
- 44.4%
- RSI (14)
- 35
- Volume vs avg
- 1.10×
- Score today
- 4.3/10