Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
OR · Why this verdict
Why OR Royalties (OR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 87% year-over-year, placing the company among the top growth performers in the materials sector and reflecting the earnings leverage inherent in royalty structures during rising gold price environments. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRoyalty revenue growth at 87% is likely elevated by a cyclical gold price surge; forward estimates may be built on a stale spot price and could mean-revert sharply. | ||
The stock recently gapped up 7.2%, creating a technical overhang where the gap may partially fill before the stock continues higher, suggesting a better entry exists below current price. Technical breakdown | Price retraces at least 50% of the recent gap toward the $29.90 entry target level within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme gap-ups on volume in high-quality companies sometimes hold as institutions accumulate positions without filling the gap. | ||
The company scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Rule of 40 of 113, wide economic moat, and free cash flow at only 32% of net income, reflecting elite-tier business quality among gold royalty operators. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 70% for the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow being only 32% of net income is a red flag indicating reported earnings may overstate actual cash generation. | ||
A sector concentration cap has been triggered with 3 gold/materials positions already held, preventing additional exposure until one position is reduced, regardless of the company's individual merit. Warnings | Sector concentration falls below the 3-position cap, enabling a fresh position if price declines to the $29.90 entry target. | →Stable |
| CounterSector diversification rules can cause an investor to miss concentrated returns in a gold bull market if the rules are applied too rigidly. | ||
Revenue grew 87% year-over-year, placing the company among the top growth performers in the materials sector and reflecting the earnings leverage inherent in royalty structures during rising gold price environments.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterRoyalty revenue growth at 87% is likely elevated by a cyclical gold price surge; forward estimates may be built on a stale spot price and could mean-revert sharply.
The stock recently gapped up 7.2%, creating a technical overhang where the gap may partially fill before the stock continues higher, suggesting a better entry exists below current price.
→StableTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price retraces at least 50% of the recent gap toward the $29.90 entry target level within the next 12 months.
CounterExtreme gap-ups on volume in high-quality companies sometimes hold as institutions accumulate positions without filling the gap.
The company scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Rule of 40 of 113, wide economic moat, and free cash flow at only 32% of net income, reflecting elite-tier business quality among gold royalty operators.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 70% for the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow being only 32% of net income is a red flag indicating reported earnings may overstate actual cash generation.
A sector concentration cap has been triggered with 3 gold/materials positions already held, preventing additional exposure until one position is reduced, regardless of the company's individual merit.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Sector concentration falls below the 3-position cap, enabling a fresh position if price declines to the $29.90 entry target.
CounterSector diversification rules can cause an investor to miss concentrated returns in a gold bull market if the rules are applied too rigidly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OR Royalties is a high-quality gold royalty business with 87% revenue growth and elite financial metrics, but a recent extreme gap-up, a sector concentration cap already at its maximum, and an asymmetry ratio that barely misses the entry threshold all suggest waiting for a better price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 78%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 87% YoY
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 83.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP->V9:SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.85
Upside
+29.8%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.2 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.85 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Peer rank at 5.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.85 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Quality Compounder
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any reported period.
- P2Revenue Growth 87pct
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Extreme Gap Up Risk
Trip ifPrice rises above $38 without filling the gap, reducing the margin of safety below 5%.
- P4Sector Cap Concentration Block
Trip ifSector concentration rises above 4 materials positions, further increasing portfolio risk.