Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
OR · Why this verdict
Why OR Royalties (OR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OR Royalties is a high-quality gold royalty business with 87% revenue growth and elite financial metrics, but a recent extreme gap-up, a sector concentration cap already at its maximum, and an asymmetry ratio that barely misses the entry threshold all suggest waiting for a better price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 87% year-over-year, placing the company among the top growth performers in the materials sector and reflecting the earnings leverage inherent in royalty structures during rising gold price environments. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRoyalty revenue growth at 87% is likely elevated by a cyclical gold price surge; forward estimates may be built on a stale spot price and could mean-revert sharply. | ||
The stock recently gapped up 7.2%, creating a technical overhang where the gap may partially fill before the stock continues higher, suggesting a better entry exists below current price. Technical breakdown | Price retraces at least 50% of the recent gap toward the $29.90 entry target level within the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtreme gap-ups on volume in high-quality companies sometimes hold as institutions accumulate positions without filling the gap. | ||
The company scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Rule of 40 of 113, wide economic moat, and free cash flow at only 32% of net income, reflecting elite-tier business quality among gold royalty operators. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 70% for the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow being only 32% of net income is a red flag indicating reported earnings may overstate actual cash generation. | ||
A sector concentration cap has been triggered with 3 gold/materials positions already held, preventing additional exposure until one position is reduced, regardless of the company's individual merit. Warnings | Sector concentration falls below the 3-position cap, enabling a fresh position if price declines to the $29.90 entry target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSector diversification rules can cause an investor to miss concentrated returns in a gold bull market if the rules are applied too rigidly. | ||
Revenue grew 87% year-over-year, placing the company among the top growth performers in the materials sector and reflecting the earnings leverage inherent in royalty structures during rising gold price environments.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterRoyalty revenue growth at 87% is likely elevated by a cyclical gold price surge; forward estimates may be built on a stale spot price and could mean-revert sharply.
The stock recently gapped up 7.2%, creating a technical overhang where the gap may partially fill before the stock continues higher, suggesting a better entry exists below current price.
↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price retraces at least 50% of the recent gap toward the $29.90 entry target level within the next 12 months.
CounterExtreme gap-ups on volume in high-quality companies sometimes hold as institutions accumulate positions without filling the gap.
The company scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Rule of 40 of 113, wide economic moat, and free cash flow at only 32% of net income, reflecting elite-tier business quality among gold royalty operators.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 70% for the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow being only 32% of net income is a red flag indicating reported earnings may overstate actual cash generation.
A sector concentration cap has been triggered with 3 gold/materials positions already held, preventing additional exposure until one position is reduced, regardless of the company's individual merit.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Sector concentration falls below the 3-position cap, enabling a fresh position if price declines to the $29.90 entry target.
CounterSector diversification rules can cause an investor to miss concentrated returns in a gold bull market if the rules are applied too rigidly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 78%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 87% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.10, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|STABILIZER:PROMOTE_DEAD_ZONE|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (10)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:1/3
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.3>=7.5+momentum=5.2>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
2.84
Upside
+22.9%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
HALF
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.84 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Technical at 5.2, and Momentum at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.84 and an engine sizing output of HALF.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Quality Compounder
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any reported period.
- P2Revenue Growth 87pct
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Extreme Gap Up Risk
Trip ifPrice rises above $38 without filling the gap, reducing the margin of safety below 5%.
- P4Sector Cap Concentration Block
Trip ifSector concentration rises above 4 materials positions, further increasing portfolio risk.