Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
OPK · Why this verdict
Why Opko Health (OPK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 combined with high implied volatility of 131% signals the market is pricing significant uncertainty into the stock. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 as uncertainty resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh implied volatility ahead of an earnings catalyst is normal and doesn't necessarily indicate a bearish skew, especially given the 188% analyst upside. | ||
Opko Health has an identified catalyst edge, with earnings due in 26 days and a 3-of-4 beat streak, alongside an extremely high asymmetry ratio of 12.93 reflecting 144.7% upside versus 11.2% downside. Edge rationale | The company extends its beat streak to at least 4 of the last 5 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide asymmetry ratio driven by a distant, high analyst price target can be misleading if the target itself is unrealistic relative to the company's declining fundamentals. | ||
Opko is cash-burning at -6% of revenue with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, driving the quality score below the engine's minimum floor (1.8 vs 4.0). Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score improves to 5/9 or higher as fundamentals stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low quality score combined with declining revenue could indicate structural business deterioration rather than a temporary rough patch. | ||
Revenue is declining 17% year-over-year, a steep contraction that scores growth at 0.0 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 17% revenue decline in a diagnostics business may reflect a post-pandemic demand normalization rather than a permanent loss of business. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 4.1, just short of the 4.5 threshold, even as on-balance volume shows distribution, or selling pressure. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score rises above 4.5 as selling pressure eases. | →Stable |
| CounterA momentum score this close to the threshold could clear the bar quickly with only a modest improvement in price action. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 combined with high implied volatility of 131% signals the market is pricing significant uncertainty into the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 as uncertainty resolves.
CounterHigh implied volatility ahead of an earnings catalyst is normal and doesn't necessarily indicate a bearish skew, especially given the 188% analyst upside.
Opko Health has an identified catalyst edge, with earnings due in 26 days and a 3-of-4 beat streak, alongside an extremely high asymmetry ratio of 12.93 reflecting 144.7% upside versus 11.2% downside.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The company extends its beat streak to at least 4 of the last 5 quarters.
CounterA wide asymmetry ratio driven by a distant, high analyst price target can be misleading if the target itself is unrealistic relative to the company's declining fundamentals.
Opko is cash-burning at -6% of revenue with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, driving the quality score below the engine's minimum floor (1.8 vs 4.0).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score improves to 5/9 or higher as fundamentals stabilize.
CounterA very low quality score combined with declining revenue could indicate structural business deterioration rather than a temporary rough patch.
Revenue is declining 17% year-over-year, a steep contraction that scores growth at 0.0 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters.
CounterA 17% revenue decline in a diagnostics business may reflect a post-pandemic demand normalization rather than a permanent loss of business.
The momentum gate failed at 4.1, just short of the 4.5 threshold, even as on-balance volume shows distribution, or selling pressure.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score rises above 4.5 as selling pressure eases.
CounterA momentum score this close to the threshold could clear the bar quickly with only a modest improvement in price action.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Opko Health shows an extremely favorable risk/reward asymmetry ahead of an upcoming earnings catalyst, but cash burn, a steep revenue decline, and heavy options hedging keep quality deeply below the engine's floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -17%
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 192%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:14.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
14.79
Upside
+147.9%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.48>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Catalyst at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 1.8, and Peer rank at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 14.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Asymmetry Catalyst Edge
Trip ifThe company's earnings surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current 3-of-4 beat streak.
- P2Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 1 out of 9 from the current 3/9.
- P3Steep Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -25% YoY from the current -17% pace.
- P4Borderline Momentum Gate Fail
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 2.0 out of 10 from the current 4.1.
- P5Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 4.00 from the current 2.00.