Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
OIS · Why this verdict
Why Oil States International (OIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oil States has beaten or met earnings in each of the last 4 quarters and has strong momentum, but its quality is low and offshore products dominate sales, while the price has already reached the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the other, with the latest at $0.15 against $0.12 and an average surprise of 22%. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPer-share numbers are tiny ($0.09 to $0.15), so small dollar beats create large percentages, and energy-services earnings can turn with activity. | ||
The stock at $9.60 is above the $9.56 analyst target (distance to target -0.4%), leaving no upside to the target and a reward-to-risk of -0.03. Analyst target | Analyst targets should rise above $10.50 if results keep beating, or the price should drift toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe forward P/E is 13.5x with a PEG of 0.20 and earnings growth scores 10/10, so rising estimates could lift targets quickly. | ||
Quality is 3.1/10, below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and margin components of 0.4 for gross margin and 1.5 for operating margin. Quality breakdown | Margins should widen so that the quality score rises above 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9 and the current ratio component is 8.1, which shows the balance sheet and trends are healthy. | ||
The Offshore Manufactured Products segment accounts for 64% of the business, so results depend heavily on offshore project spending. Bear case | The segment share should fall below 60% as other businesses grow. | →Stable |
| CounterA concentrated offshore backlog can also be a source of strength when offshore activity is rising, and the recent beats suggest the segment is performing. | ||
Momentum is 7.9/10 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, though RSI of 72 is overbought after a 5.7% gap up. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should stay above 5.5 as volume confirms the advance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 72 and an extreme gap up that may pull back point to a short-term pause, and the Bollinger and support scores are near zero. | ||
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the other, with the latest at $0.15 against $0.12 and an average surprise of 22%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates over the next 12 months.
CounterPer-share numbers are tiny ($0.09 to $0.15), so small dollar beats create large percentages, and energy-services earnings can turn with activity.
The stock at $9.60 is above the $9.56 analyst target (distance to target -0.4%), leaving no upside to the target and a reward-to-risk of -0.03.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise above $10.50 if results keep beating, or the price should drift toward the target.
CounterThe forward P/E is 13.5x with a PEG of 0.20 and earnings growth scores 10/10, so rising estimates could lift targets quickly.
Quality is 3.1/10, below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and margin components of 0.4 for gross margin and 1.5 for operating margin.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should widen so that the quality score rises above 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9 and the current ratio component is 8.1, which shows the balance sheet and trends are healthy.
The Offshore Manufactured Products segment accounts for 64% of the business, so results depend heavily on offshore project spending.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The segment share should fall below 60% as other businesses grow.
CounterA concentrated offshore backlog can also be a source of strength when offshore activity is rising, and the recent beats suggest the segment is performing.
Momentum is 7.9/10 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, though RSI of 72 is overbought after a 5.7% gap up.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should stay above 5.5 as volume confirms the advance.
CounterRSI of 72 and an extreme gap up that may pull back point to a short-term pause, and the Bollinger and support scores are near zero.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 8.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:107d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.41
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.41.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Technical at 4.0, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $10.50 so that upside exceeds 5% from the current -0.4%.
- P3Low Quality No Moat
Trip ifOverall quality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.1.
- P4Offshore Product Concentration
Trip ifOffshore Manufactured Products segment share falls below 55% from the current 64%.
- P5Strong Overbought Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.9.