Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.1x
OII · Why this verdict
Why Oceaneering International (OII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oceaneering International combines an excellent ROE of 36% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 with a strong earnings beat streak of 3 of 4 quarters, but the stock has already exceeded its analyst price target by more than 20% and momentum has dropped below the minimum required threshold.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Oceaneering International's return on equity of 36% ranks among the highest in its peer group within oil and gas equipment services, and its Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the capital-light service model. | →Stable |
| CounterA high ROE can be mechanically inflated by share buybacks or low equity base rather than genuine asset productivity, and operating margin scores are low at 3.3, suggesting underlying profitability is thin. | ||
Oceaneering beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with large positive surprises of 47%, 28%, and 24% in three consecutive quarters before the most recent miss, suggesting the business often generates more cash than analysts anticipate. Earnings | Earnings surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the pattern of conservative guidance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced an -8.3% miss after 3 strong beats, and the average surprise across all 4 quarters was 22.7% — primarily driven by exceptional prior period delivery that may not repeat. | ||
The current price of $37.89 is already 20.9% above the analyst consensus target, and the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -2.32, meaning the stock offers more downside than upside from current levels based on all available price targets. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 25% within 12 months to reflect stronger-than-expected demand for offshore services. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets often lag price appreciation in cyclical recoveries, and the technical setup shows the stock is above its 200-day moving average with a 52-week position near the top, indicating strong prior momentum. | ||
The momentum score of 4.2 has fallen below the minimum required threshold of 4.5, and falling on-balance volume combined with weak MACD suggests that buying pressure is declining even as the stock trades near highs. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5.0 within 3 months as volume patterns stabilize and price consolidates constructively. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock remains above the 200-day moving average, and technical signals reflect a single-period pause rather than a confirmed trend reversal, with the 52-week position still at the high end. | ||
Oceaneering International's return on equity of 36% ranks among the highest in its peer group within oil and gas equipment services, and its Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the capital-light service model.
CounterA high ROE can be mechanically inflated by share buybacks or low equity base rather than genuine asset productivity, and operating margin scores are low at 3.3, suggesting underlying profitability is thin.
Oceaneering beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with large positive surprises of 47%, 28%, and 24% in three consecutive quarters before the most recent miss, suggesting the business often generates more cash than analysts anticipate.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the pattern of conservative guidance.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced an -8.3% miss after 3 strong beats, and the average surprise across all 4 quarters was 22.7% — primarily driven by exceptional prior period delivery that may not repeat.
The current price of $37.89 is already 20.9% above the analyst consensus target, and the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -2.32, meaning the stock offers more downside than upside from current levels based on all available price targets.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 25% within 12 months to reflect stronger-than-expected demand for offshore services.
CounterAnalyst targets often lag price appreciation in cyclical recoveries, and the technical setup shows the stock is above its 200-day moving average with a 52-week position near the top, indicating strong prior momentum.
The momentum score of 4.2 has fallen below the minimum required threshold of 4.5, and falling on-balance volume combined with weak MACD suggests that buying pressure is declining even as the stock trades near highs.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5.0 within 3 months as volume patterns stabilize and price consolidates constructively.
CounterThe stock remains above the 200-day moving average, and technical signals reflect a single-period pause rather than a confirmed trend reversal, with the 52-week position still at the high end.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,166,312 (0.074% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $44.65 has reached target $44.24. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.03
Upside
-30.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $44.65 has reached target $44.24. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Momentum at 7.2 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.2, Catalyst at 6.7, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Technical at 4.0, and Sentiment at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Superior Roe Peer Standing
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, suggesting the quality advantage versus peers is eroding.
- P2Earnings Beat Cadence
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -15% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established beat pattern.
- P3Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $45 without a corresponding analyst target upgrade, widening the negative asymmetry ratio beyond -3.
- P4Momentum Deterioration
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 for 2 consecutive periods, indicating a more sustained loss of buying interest.