Value
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸Attractively valued
OIG · Why this verdict
Why Orion180 Insurance Group (OIG) is rated DATA_ISSUE
Updated
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VerdictDATA_ISSUE
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Orion180 Insurance Group shows strong growth (56% YoY), solid margins and a 7/9 Piotroski score, but no price was available this run and operating margin of -114.5% with D/E 3.1 raises value-trap concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 56% YoY, earning a growth score of 10.0 and an industry growth leader flag. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small insurer can post high growth off a tiny base that does not persist. | ||
The business is rated high quality with strong margins of 21% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, for a quality score of 8.1. Quality breakdown | Quality score should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski score above 6/9. | — |
| CounterThe quality read conflicts with the -114.5% operating margin value-trap signal, so margins may not be as strong as the notes imply. | ||
Value-trap signals show 2 of 5 triggered, with operating margin at -114.5% and debt-to-equity at 3.1. Bear case | Operating margin should rise above 0% and debt-to-equity should fall below 3 within 12 months. | — |
| CounterInsurers' leverage and operating-margin metrics are distorted by float and reserves, so the signals may overstate distress. | ||
No price was returned this run, so no entry, target or stop can be computed and the engine recommends AVOID. Warnings | A valid price should be returned in the next refresh so the setup can be assessed. | — |
| CounterThe missing price is an upstream data issue rather than a company fact, so it says nothing about the fundamentals. | ||
Property and casualty insurance is classed as a binary industry, which makes the stock speculative with no clear edge. Suitability rationale | A defined edge should emerge before the speculative cap is lifted. | — |
| CounterThe binary classification is industry-wide, and a well-run underwriter can still compound reliably. | ||
Growth is strong at 56% YoY, earning a growth score of 10.0 and an industry growth leader flag.
—Growth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small insurer can post high growth off a tiny base that does not persist.
The business is rated high quality with strong margins of 21% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, for a quality score of 8.1.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski score above 6/9.
CounterThe quality read conflicts with the -114.5% operating margin value-trap signal, so margins may not be as strong as the notes imply.
Value-trap signals show 2 of 5 triggered, with operating margin at -114.5% and debt-to-equity at 3.1.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin should rise above 0% and debt-to-equity should fall below 3 within 12 months.
CounterInsurers' leverage and operating-margin metrics are distorted by float and reserves, so the signals may overstate distress.
No price was returned this run, so no entry, target or stop can be computed and the engine recommends AVOID.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- A valid price should be returned in the next refresh so the setup can be assessed.
CounterThe missing price is an upstream data issue rather than a company fact, so it says nothing about the fundamentals.
Property and casualty insurance is classed as a binary industry, which makes the stock speculative with no clear edge.
—Suitability rationale
- Expectation
- A defined edge should emerge before the speculative cap is lifted.
CounterThe binary classification is industry-wide, and a well-run underwriter can still compound reliably.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 50%Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=8)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 50%Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
No current price available — cannot compute entry, target, or stop. Upstream data source (Alpaca/yfinance) did not return a price for this run.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L0:DATA_ISSUE_NO_PRICEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
0.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The DATA_ISSUE verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0; the weakest are Technical at 5.0, Insider at 5.0, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Financials
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from the current 8.1.
- P3Value Trap Margin Compression
Trip ifOperating margin stays below -50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Data Unavailable
Trip ifPrice data stays unavailable for more than 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P5Binary Industry Speculative
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 4 from the current 3.1.