Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
OABI · Why this verdict
Why OmniAb (OABI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OmniAb is a fast-growing, free-cash-flow-positive biotech platform business with revenue up 78% and 41.9% analyst-target upside, though it is still loss-making and just gapped down 15.9%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a free-cash-flow margin of 25%, a Rule of 40 score of 104 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow margin should stay above 15% as revenue scales. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe free-cash-flow yield is only 1.4%, so the cash generation is small relative to the valuation and may come from timing of partner payments. | ||
Revenue is growing 78% YoY, which earns the maximum growth score of 10/10 and marks it an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 40% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and platform revenue from milestones and partner payments is lumpy, so a 78% reading could reverse on timing. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the latest loss of $0.12 against an estimate of a $0.13 loss, an average surprise of 20%. Earnings | Quarterly losses should continue to come in at or better than estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe March miss (-$0.11 against -$0.09) and the narrowing from -$0.05 back to -$0.12 over the last two reports show losses can widen again. | ||
The $7.25 analyst target is 41.9% above the $5.11 price, a reward-to-risk of 2.79 against 15.0% downside. Analyst target | The price should move toward $7.25 if growth and cash flow hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the extreme gap down of 15.9% may mean the market is already doubting the targets. | ||
Momentum is 5.9/10 with a golden cross and the price above its 200-day average, but on-balance volume is falling and the stock gapped down 15.9%. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should stay above 5.5 and on-balance volume should turn up. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and a Bollinger score of 1.6 show weak buying, so the breakout may fail on the next disappointment. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a free-cash-flow margin of 25%, a Rule of 40 score of 104 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow margin should stay above 15% as revenue scales.
CounterThe free-cash-flow yield is only 1.4%, so the cash generation is small relative to the valuation and may come from timing of partner payments.
Revenue is growing 78% YoY, which earns the maximum growth score of 10/10 and marks it an industry growth leader.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 40% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 and platform revenue from milestones and partner payments is lumpy, so a 78% reading could reverse on timing.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the latest loss of $0.12 against an estimate of a $0.13 loss, an average surprise of 20%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly losses should continue to come in at or better than estimates.
CounterThe March miss (-$0.11 against -$0.09) and the narrowing from -$0.05 back to -$0.12 over the last two reports show losses can widen again.
The $7.25 analyst target is 41.9% above the $5.11 price, a reward-to-risk of 2.79 against 15.0% downside.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- The price should move toward $7.25 if growth and cash flow hold.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the extreme gap down of 15.9% may mean the market is already doubting the targets.
Momentum is 5.9/10 with a golden cross and the price above its 200-day average, but on-balance volume is falling and the stock gapped down 15.9%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should stay above 5.5 and on-balance volume should turn up.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and a Bollinger score of 1.6 show weak buying, so the breakout may fail on the next disappointment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 8.1 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 25%, FCF yield 1.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 104 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 78% YoY
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 4.5 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:119d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.29
Upside
+49.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Insider at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from the current 78%.
- P2Fcf Positive Elite Rule Of 40
Trip ifFree-cash-flow margin falls below 10% from the current 25%.
- P3Narrowing Losses Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $5.40 so that upside drops below 5% from 41.9%.
- P5Breakout With Distribution Signs
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 5.9.