Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 3.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 4.05
NVS · Why this verdict
Why Novartis (NVS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Rule of 40: 21 (fail)
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.93
Upside
-9.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.93 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Quality at 7.0, and Technical at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Peer rank at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.