Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 35.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
NTGR · Why this verdict
Why NETGEAR (NTGR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 5.9 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 63%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $318,689 (0.055% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.77
- ▸High IV: 100%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.75
Upside
+38.4%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Catalyst at 7.5, and Technical at 7.1; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Momentum at 2.9, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.