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NRPNatural Resource Partners LP LiHold6.1·$113.72+0.28%
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Natural Resource Partners is a high-quality thermal coal royalty business with strong margins of 59% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but faces a cyclical earnings cliff with forward price-to-earnings of 34x versus trailing 12x, consecutive earnings misses, and zero revenue growth, making the near-term risk-reward unfavorable.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings MissesDeteriorating
  • High Quality Royalty MarginsStable
  • Cyclical Earnings Cliff Forward PeDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Natural Resource Partners LP Li (NRP) Stock Analysis

HoldQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Thermal Coal

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States. It operates in two segments, Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. It owns interests in coal, soda ash, trona, and other natural resources.... Read more

$113.72+15.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#1 of 4 Thermal Coal
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.65%(5y avg 4.27%)Payout38.27%sustainable
Stop $108.96Target $130.78(default +15%)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth
Overbought (RSI 90)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn52.3%
ROE17.2%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta0.17
Dividend2.65%
Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.11bullish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.2
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
8.0
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
90 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $101.76Resistance $115.29

Price Targets

$109
$131
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NRP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $130.78 (+15.0%), stop $108.96 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

What is the NRP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.78 (+15.0% upside). Target $130.78 (+15.0%), stop $108.96 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $108.96.

What are the risks of investing in NRP?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth; Overbought (RSI 90).

Is NRP overvalued or undervalued?

Natural Resource Partners LP Li trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NRP?

5 analysts cover NRP with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Natural Resource Partners LP Li do?Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral...

Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States. It operates in two segments, Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. It owns interests in coal, soda ash, trona, and other natural resources. The company's coal reserves are primarily located in the Appalachia Basin, the Illinois Basin, and the Northern Powder River Basin in the United States; industrial minerals and aggregates properties located in the United States; and oil and gas properties located in Louisiana. It leases a portion of its reserves in exchange for royalty payments; and owns and leases transportation and processing infrastructure related to coal properties. Natural Resource Partners L.P. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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